As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate GOOGL median target $435.15 (+24.6% vs spot $349.22, model agreement 0.86). Analyst consensus $430.51 (54 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$435.15
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+24.6%
Agreement
0.865/5 models
Raw 0.86
Dispersion
σ 5.4%
Analyst consensus
$430.51(54 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$433.76
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on GOOGL.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for GOOGL moved from $450.57 to $435.15 (-3.4%); median WACC 10.5% → 10.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 5.4% → 5.4%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022–2025) anchors the 5-year forward estim…
Google Cloud remains the primary incremental growth engine with consumption-b…
EBIT margin expansion from 28.9% trailing toward ~32% steady-state is support…
Top Risk
Regulatory and antitrust pressure across multiple jurisdictions could force structural …
Heavy capital expenditure cycle (20.5% of revenue, $91.4B in FY2025) for AI infrastruct…
AI-native search competitors (OpenAI, Perplexity) and Microsoft Bing/Copilot integratio…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. No new primary-source data from allowed dom…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
13.0%
12.0%
13.5%
9.0%
+0.5pp
12.0%
+12.0pp
EBIT Margin Target
32.0%
31.0%
30.0%
31.0%
30.0%
WACC
10.6%
10.5%
10.5%
9.5%
10.5%
Terminal Growth
3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
12.0%
11.0%
-1.0pp
EBIT Margin Target
31.0%
29.0%
-2.0pp
WACC
10.5%
10.9%
+0.4pp
Based on spot price $349.22 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin28.9%
EBITDA Margin38.8%
ROE58.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.7x
P/E Trailing17.5x
EV / EBITDA24.0x
P/B6.9x
Analyst Range340.00 – 515.00
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services, such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music and Premium, NFL Sunday Ticket, and Google One. The Google Cloud segment offers consumption-based fees and subscriptions for AI solutions, including AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini enterprise. It also provides cybersecurity, and data and analytics services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet; and other enterprise services. The Other Bets segment sells transportation and internet services. Alphabet Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key driver: Accelerated growth in Google Cloud driven by enterprise AI adoption and Gemin...
AI consensus estimate 435.15 24.6% above the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.86).
Analyst consensus: 430.51 (AI +1.1%).
Bear Case (min)
$417.07
19.4%
Base Case (median)
$435.15
+24.6%
Bull Case (max)
$475.42
36.1%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)