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GOOGLAlphabet Inc.

📅 2026-04-03🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
295.77 USD
52-Week Range
$140.53
$349.00

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$421.89
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+42.6%
Agreement
0.725/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.13
Analyst consensus
$376.93(56 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on GOOGL. Key driver: Continued strong growth in Google Cloud, driven by AI solutions and enterpris... AI consensus estimate 421.89 42.6% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.72). Analyst consensus: 376.93 (AI +11.9%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokGOOGLAlphabet In…295.8spot376.9analysts276317359401442484
Bear Case (min)
$284.70
-3.7%
Base Case (median)
$421.89
+42.6%
Bull Case (max)
$501.08
69.4%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:421.89→421.89(+0.0%)
CAGR
-1.0pp(1 ↓)
MARG
-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no-assumption-changerisks-updatedopenai-competitive-risk-noted
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE
Est.
463.83
Gap
+56.8%
Conf
0.75
DCF 501.08 → Cal. 463.83
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022–2025) provides a strong baseline; anal…
  • Google Cloud (Vertex AI, Gemini Enterprise, cybersecurity) remains the primar…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 32% is already elevated for the sector; operating lev…
Top Risk
  • Ongoing antitrust and regulatory scrutiny (DOJ search monopoly case, EU investigations)…
  • AI-driven disruption to core Search advertising model: if LLM-based search alternatives…
  • Elevated capex intensity (22.7% of revenue) compresses near-term free cash flow and cre…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model (revenue_cagr_5y: 0.14, ebit_margin_target: …
No change
no-assumption-changerisks-updatedopenai-competitive-risk-noted
GEMINI
Est.
439.54
Gap
+48.6%
Conf
0.80
DCF 466.37 → Cal. 439.54
Key Drivers
  • Continued strong growth in Google Cloud, driven by AI solutions and enterpris…
  • Resilient performance of Google Services, particularly Search and YouTube adv…
  • Potential for operating leverage and margin expansion as high-growth segments…
Top Risk
  • Increasing regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions, impacting business prac…
  • Intense competition in core advertising, cloud computing, and AI markets.
  • Dependence on advertising revenue, making the company susceptible to economic downturns.
Delta
No significant changes in key valuation assumptions compared to yesterday's model.
No change
no change
GPT
Est.
421.89
Gap
+42.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 441.16 → Cal. 421.89
Key Drivers
  • Continuous growth in cloud services and AI solutions
  • Expansion of subscription services like YouTube TV and Google One
  • Strong historical revenue growth with a positive outlook
Top Risk
  • Regulatory challenges in multiple jurisdictions
  • Intense competition in cloud and AI markets
  • Economic downturns affecting advertising spend
Delta
No changes in assumptions since yesterday as model data remains consistent.
No previous data
no changeconsistent
GROK
Est.
410.16
Gap
+38.7%
Conf
0.80
DCF 424.40 → Cal. 410.16
Key Drivers
  • Projected revenue growth of 14% CAGR over 5 years, supported by historical 12…
  • EBIT margin target of 34% reflects expected operating leverage from scaling h…
  • Diversified revenue from Google Services, including ads, apps, and consumer s…
Top Risk
  • Regulatory and legal challenges could impact growth and profitability in key markets.
  • Intense competition in AI and cloud computing may pressure margins and market share.
  • High capex levels (22.7% of revenue) could strain cash flows if growth initiatives unde…
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, with no significant new data or events altering the outlook for…
No change
stable assumptionsno update
DEEPSEEK
Est.
312.37
Gap
+5.6%
Conf
0.75
DCF 284.70 → Cal. 312.37
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022-2025) provides strong baseline for fut…
  • Google Cloud and AI solutions (Vertex AI, Gemini) represent significant growt…
  • High trailing EBIT margin (32%) and ROE (31.8%) demonstrate operational effic…
Top Risk
  • Regulatory and legal headwinds, including potential antitrust actions and ongoing inves…
  • High capital intensity (capex/revenue 22.7%) required to maintain AI and cloud infrastr…
  • Competitive pressure in AI and cloud services from Microsoft, Amazon, and emerging AI c…
Delta
Maintaining similar assumptions with minor adjustments to reflect updated market data and recent news, with slight de…
CAGR
-1.0pp
MARG
-1.0pp
growth updatemargin refinementwacc stable

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y14.0%10.5%
-1.0pp
17.0%12.0%14.0%
EBIT Margin Target34.0%31.0%
-1.0pp
33.0%34.0%34.0%
WACC9.6%10.8%11.0%9.5%10.5%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin32.0%
EBITDA Margin37.3%
ROE31.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.4x
P/E Trailing27.1x
EV / EBITDA23.4x
P/B8.6x
Analyst Range– – –

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