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AI model estimates for Alphabet Inc. vs spot price
2026-07-10🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Top disagreement #2
358.89 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$174.38
$408.61
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate GOOGL median target $386.15 (+7.6% vs spot $358.89, model agreement 0.60). Analyst consensus $432.10 (53 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$386.15
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+7.6%
Agreement
0.605/5 models
Raw 0.50
Dispersion
σ 22.6%
Analyst consensus
$432.10(53 analysts)
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on GOOGL. Key driver: Strong positioning in AI solutions and Google Cloud, driving future growth an... AI consensus estimate 386.15 7.6% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.60). Analyst consensus: 432.10 (AI -10.6%).Bear Case (min)
$267.28
-25.5%
Base Case (median)
$386.15
+7.6%
Bull Case (max)
$650.57
81.3%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:407.87→386.15(-5.3%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-assumption-changestable-modelmag7-valuation-compression
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for GOOGL moved from $404.94 to $386.15 (-4.6%); median WACC 10.5% → 11.5% (+1.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 9.1% → 22.6%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $404.94 | $386.15 | -4.6% |
| Median WACC | 10.50% | 11.50% | +1.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 13.0% | 14.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 32.0% | 33.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 9.1% | 22.6% | +13.47 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 650.57 → Cal. 585.03
Key Drivers
- Strong growth prospects in Google Cloud and AI solutions
- Market leadership in digital advertising
- Ongoing investment in technology infrastructure
Top Risk
- Regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust issues
- Fluctuations in advertising revenue
- Increased competition in cloud services
Delta
No previous data
stableno change
DCF 422.81 → Cal. 425.60
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022-2025) is accelerating; analyst consens…
- Google Cloud is the fastest-growing segment, benefiting from enterprise AI ad…
- Search advertising remains structurally dominant; AI Overviews expand monetiz…
Top Risk
- Hyperscaler capex intensity remains extreme at ~21.6% of revenue; sustained elevated AI…
- Regulatory and antitrust pressure (DOJ search monopoly ruling, EU DMA enforcement) coul…
- AI disruption to core Search: generative AI competitors (OpenAI, Perplexity, Anthropic)…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changestable-modelmag7-valuation-compression
DCF 366.45 → Cal. 386.15
Key Drivers
- Strong positioning in AI solutions and Google Cloud, driving future growth an…
- Continued robust performance and monetization potential from core Google Serv…
- Significant capital investments in AI infrastructure and data centers expecte…
Top Risk
- Intense competition in cloud computing and AI from other hyperscalers, potentially impa…
- High capital expenditure requirements for AI infrastructure and electricity, which coul…
- Ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions in various jurisdictions af…
Delta
WACC+0.5pp
Minor adjustmentsWACC change
DCF 318.23 → Cal. 352.39
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 12.5% (2022-2025) with 21.8% 1Y forward est
- Trailing EBIT margin 30.5% supported by high-ROE business mix
- Google Cloud AI/Vertex growth expanding enterprise TAM
Top Risk
- Hyperscaler capex and electricity constraints may pressure near-term margins
- Regulatory and antitrust exposure in core Search/Ads segment
- Competition from hyperscalers and specialized AI models compressing cloud pricing
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
minor change
DCF 267.28 → Cal. 316.73
Key Drivers
- AI integration across Search, Cloud, and YouTube strengthens competitive posi…
- Google Cloud accelerating with enterprise AI solutions (Vertex AI, Gemini), d…
- YouTube subscription services (TV, Music, NFL Sunday Ticket) expand beyond ad…
Top Risk
- Regulatory headwinds in US, EU, and other jurisdictions could impact ad revenue and bus…
- Intense competition in AI and cloud from Microsoft, Amazon, and emerging players may pr…
- High capex (21.6% of revenue) for AI infrastructure may not yield expected returns if A…
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 14.0% | 10.0% | 16.5% | 15.0% | 14.0% +0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 33.0% | 31.0% | 40.0% | 32.0% |
| WACC | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% +0.5pp | 9.5% | 12.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 14.0% | 14.1% | +0.1pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 33.1% | +0.1pp |
| WACC | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.0pp |
Based on spot price $358.89 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin30.5%
EBITDA Margin38.2%
ROE38.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing27.3x
EV / EBITDA27.0x
P/B9.1x
Analyst Range340.00 – 515.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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