265.77 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$173.33
$276.47
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate JNJ median target $211.89 (-20.3% vs spot $265.77, model agreement 0.76). Analyst consensus $272.50 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$211.89
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-20.3%
Agreement
0.765/5 models
Raw 0.76
Dispersion
σ 10.4%
Analyst consensus
$272.50(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$230.07
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on JNJ. Key concern: Ongoing litigation and legal liabilities, including talc-related lawsuits. AI consensus estimate 211.89 20.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.76). Analyst consensus: 272.50 (AI -22.2%).Bear Case (min)
$188.38
-29.1%
Base Case (median)
$211.89
-20.3%
Bull Case (max)
$257.20
-3.2%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:211.89→211.89(+0.0%)
no-assumption-changepipeline-expansionimaavy-rare-blood-disorder
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for JNJ moved from $215.73 to $211.89 (-1.8%); median WACC 8.5% → 8.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.0% → 10.4%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $215.73 | $211.89 | -1.8% |
| Median WACC | 8.50% | 8.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 26.5% | 27.0% | +0.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 10.0% | 10.4% | +0.44 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 257.20 → Cal. 261.79
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 5.6% (2022–2025) remains a strong fundamental anch…
- Imaavy (nipocalimab) expansion into rare blood disorders — as noted in today'…
- Stelara biosimilar competition remains an active near-term headwind compressi…
Top Risk
- Ongoing talc litigation remains a contingent liability overhang; aggregate unresolved c…
- Stelara biosimilar competition could accelerate faster than expected, compressing Innov…
- IRA drug price negotiation creates structural pricing pressure on high-revenue Innovati…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changepipeline-expansionimaavy-rare-blood-disorder
DCF 224.65 → Cal. 239.00
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 5.6% supports a mid-single-digit forward growth vi…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 26.1% is already solid, so the steady-state target st…
- Low beta of 0.231 supports a defensive discount rate near the low end of the …
Top Risk
- Patent and exclusivity pressure in Innovative Medicine could slow growth if new product…
- MedTech demand can be affected by procedure volumes, reimbursement, and competitive pre…
- Large legal liabilities or settlement costs could pressure margins and capital allocation.
Delta
No change
unchangedbaseline assumptions
DCF 211.89 → Cal. 230.07
Key Drivers
- Diversified Innovative Medicine and MedTech portfolio supports durable mid-si…
- Historical 5.6% revenue CAGR and near-term revenue growth of 6.6% anchor the …
- High-margin Innovative Medicine mix and operating leverage support a steady-s…
Top Risk
- Key drug patent expirations and biosimilar competition could pressure revenue growth if…
- Healthcare pricing and reimbursement reforms could limit EBIT margin expansion.
- Litigation overhang from talc-related claims remains an ongoing legal risk.
Delta
No change
steady stateno material change
DCF 208.55 → Cal. 227.73
Key Drivers
- Steady demand across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments, driving consis…
- Robust R&D pipeline, supported by recent regulatory milestones and pipeline e…
- Strong balance sheet with low leverage of 0.81x net debt to EBITDA providing …
Top Risk
- Ongoing litigation and legal liabilities, including talc-related lawsuits.
- Patent cliffs and generic/biosimilar competition for key blockbuster drugs.
- Regulatory and pricing pressures in major global healthcare markets.
Delta
No change
healthcaredefensivestable margins
DCF 188.38 → Cal. 213.62
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 5.6% with 2025 revenue 94.2B
- Trailing EBIT margin 26.1% as steady-state anchor
- Diversified Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments
Top Risk
- Patent cliff exposure in pharma portfolio
- Ongoing talc litigation and settlements
- Regulatory and approval risks for pipeline products
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 27.0% | 27.0% | 26.5% | 27.0% | 26.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.5% | 10.6% | +5.1pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 27.0% | 39.8% | +12.8pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 6.9% | -1.6pp |
Based on spot price $265.77 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin26.1%
EBITDA Margin35.6%
ROE25.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.8x
P/E Trailing30.4x
EV / EBITDA19.2x
P/B7.5x
Analyst Range190.00 – 305.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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