243.04 USD
52-Week Range
$141.50
$251.71
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$221.45
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-8.9%
Agreement
0.805/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.08
Analyst consensus
$241.08(24 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on JNJ. Key concern: Impact of patent expirations, particularly for key products, could affect rev... AI consensus estimate 221.45 8.9% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.80). Analyst consensus: 241.08 (AI -8.1%).Bear Case (min)
$156.79
-35.5%
Base Case (median)
$221.45
-8.9%
Bull Case (max)
$229.27
-5.7%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:221.45→221.45(+0.0%)
CAGR-0.2pp(1 ↓)
MARG-0.5pp(1 ↓)
no-assumption-changetariff-risk-escalatedmedtech-china-headwind-noted
Model Breakdown
GEMINI
DCF 229.27 → Cal. 232.81
Key Drivers
- Diversified portfolio across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments provide…
- Strong historical profitability and operational efficiency, reflected in high…
- Global market presence and extensive distribution network contribute to stabl…
Top Risk
- Impact of patent expirations, particularly for key products, could affect revenue growth.
- Regulatory and competitive pressures on drug pricing policies globally, including poten…
- Successful commercialization of new drugs and technologies from the pipeline is crucial…
Delta
No change
no change
GPT
DCF 224.25 → Cal. 229.30
Key Drivers
- Strong product pipeline in oncology and immunology.
- Investment in MedTech innovation.
- Stable demand for healthcare products.
Top Risk
- Potential patent expirations impacting revenue.
- Regulatory challenges in drug approvals.
- Market competition in pharmaceuticals.
Delta
No previous data
stableinvestments
CLAUDE
DCF 213.04 → Cal. 221.45
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 5.6% (2022–2025) anchors the 5-year forward estima…
- MedTech segment provides steady mid-single-digit growth from surgical robotic…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 27.2% reflects strong pricing power and scale; target…
Top Risk
- Stelara loss-of-exclusivity (LOE) creates a meaningful revenue headwind in the Innovati…
- Drug pricing policy risk — Trump administration 100% tariffs on some drug imports could…
- Pipeline execution risk: oncology and immunology pipeline must deliver regulatory appro…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changetariff-risk-escalatedmedtech-china-headwind-noted
GROK
DCF 208.20 → Cal. 218.07
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue growth of 5.6% CAGR adjusted to 7% due to strong pipeline …
- Recent developments highlight strength across key therapeutic areas, supporti…
- MedTech segment growth driven by advancements in surgical and digital technol…
Top Risk
- Potential revenue impact from patent expirations on key drugs like Stelara.
- Regulatory and pricing pressures in healthcare could compress margins.
- Intense competition in oncology and immunology therapeutic areas.
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsminor update
DEEPSEEK
DCF 156.79 → Cal. 182.08
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 5.6% (2022-2025) provides a baseline for future gr…
- Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of 9.1% for the next year…
- Strong trailing EBIT margin of 27.2% demonstrates operational efficiency in t…
Top Risk
- Patent expirations, notably for Stelara, create significant revenue headwinds that must…
- Drug pricing policy pressures could impact margins across the pharmaceutical industry.
- Pipeline success is uncertain; new drugs may not fully replace lost revenue from loss o…
Delta
CAGR-0.2pp
MARG-0.5pp
stabilityminor adjustmentconsistency
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 6.5% | 4.0% -0.2pp | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 28.0% | 25.5% -0.5pp | 28.0% | 33.0% | 28.0% |
| WACC | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin27.2%
EBITDA Margin35.9%
ROE32.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.9x
P/E Trailing21.9x
EV / EBITDA18.2x
P/B7.2x
Analyst Range– – –
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