As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate JNJ median target $231.59 (-8.6% vs spot $253.28, model agreement 0.76). Analyst consensus $278.86 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$231.59
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-8.6%
Agreement
0.765/5 models
Raw 0.76
Dispersion
σ 10.5%
Analyst consensus
$278.86(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$245.77
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on JNJ.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for JNJ moved from $228.80 to $231.59 (+1.2%); median WACC 8.0% → 8.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.5% → 10.5%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Historical revenue CAGR of 5.6% (2022–2025: $79.99B to $94.19B) and analyst 1…
Trailing EBIT margin of 25.8% is robust for a diversified healthcare conglome…
Beta of 0.206 is well outside the CAPM-usable band (0.6–1.4), so sector midpo…
Top Risk
Stelara biosimilar competition is a material near-term headwind to Innovative Medicine …
Ongoing talc litigation creates contingent liability uncertainty; large adverse judgmen…
IRA drug price negotiation mechanism creates structural margin pressure on high-revenue…
Delta
All four core assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model. Spot price has moved modestly lower ($253.91 to $25…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.5%
4.2%
5.5%
5.0%
5.5%
EBIT Margin Target
27.0%
25.5%
26.5%
27.0%
26.0%
WACC
7.5%
6.0%
8.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Terminal Growth
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
5.5%
8.5%
+3.0pp
EBIT Margin Target
26.5%
33.5%
+7.0pp
WACC
8.0%
7.1%
-0.9pp
Based on spot price $253.28 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin25.8%
EBITDA Margin34.4%
ROE19.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.8x
P/E Trailing37.9x
EV / EBITDA18.7x
P/B7.2x
Analyst Range190.00 – 320.00
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and re
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Litigation overhang and settlement cost uncertainty related to legacy talc pr...
AI consensus estimate 231.59 8.6% below the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.76).
Analyst consensus: 278.86 (AI -17.0%).
Bear Case (min)
$190.65
-24.7%
Base Case (median)
$231.59
-8.6%
Bull Case (max)
$260.36
2.8%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)