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AI model estimates for
Johnson & Johnson vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Phealthcare
231.73 USD
52-Week Range
$149.04
$251.71

5 AI models estimate JNJ median target $221.52 (-4.4% vs spot $231.73, model agreement 0.87). Analyst consensus $252.96 (24 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$221.52
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-4.4%
Agreement
0.874/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.81
Dispersion
σ 0.05
Analyst consensus
$252.96(24 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on JNJ. Key concern: Potential impact of patent expirations and increased generic competition on k... AI consensus estimate 221.52 4.4% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.87). Analyst consensus: 252.96 (AI -12.4%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokJNJJohnson & J…231.7spot253.0analysts194207220233246259
Bear Case (min)
$178.22
-23.1%
Base Case (median)
$221.52
-4.4%
Bull Case (max)
$215.19
-7.1%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:226.52→221.52(-2.2%)
CAGR
-0.7pp(1 ↓)
no changemoderated growthvaluation

Model Breakdown

GPT →
Est.
226.52
Gap
-2.2%
Conf
0.80
DCF 215.19 → Cal. 226.52
Key Drivers
  • Strong product pipeline in innovative medicine segment
  • Ongoing market expansion opportunities
  • Investment in R&D leading to potential revenue growth
Top Risk
  • Upcoming patent expirations
  • Regulatory challenges
  • Market competition in pharmaceutical sector
Delta
Key assumptions have remained stable since yesterday, reflecting consistent growth expectations.
No previous data
valuationhealthcarestable
GEMINI →
Est.
221.52
Gap
-4.4%
Conf
0.80
DCF 208.05 → Cal. 221.52
Key Drivers
  • Diversified portfolio across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments provide…
  • Strong market position and global brand recognition in the healthcare industry.
  • Continued innovation in key therapeutic areas like oncology, immunology, card…
Top Risk
  • Potential impact of patent expirations and increased generic competition on key pharmac…
  • Regulatory changes and evolving healthcare policies in major markets affecting product …
  • Challenges in maintaining a robust R&D pipeline to offset mature product declines and d…
Delta
A slight moderation in the 5-year revenue growth forecast from yesterday, reflecting a more conservative long-term ou…
CAGR
-0.7pp
moderated growth
GROK →
Est.
205.01
Gap
-11.5%
Conf
0.65
DCF 184.46 → Cal. 205.01
Key Drivers
  • Innovative Medicine segment drives oncology/immunology growth
  • MedTech expansion in robotics and orthopedics
  • Historical 5.6% revenue CAGR anchors future outlook
Top Risk
  • Patent expirations on key products
  • Healthcare regulatory and pricing pressures
  • Competition in generics/biosimilars
Delta
Assumptions held steady vs prior day; no material revision to growth, margin, or WACC inputs.
No change
no change
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
200.64
Gap
-13.4%
Conf
0.70
DCF 178.22 → Cal. 200.64
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 5.6% (2022-2025) provides a baseline for future gr…
  • Innovative Medicine segment pipeline, including oncology and immunology advan…
  • MedTech segment benefits from aging population and surgical procedure volume …
Top Risk
  • Patent expirations on key drugs could pressure revenue growth
  • Litigation related to talc and opioid cases remains an overhang
  • Pricing pressure from healthcare reforms and drug pricing legislation
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC, and terminal growth remain…
No change
no change
CLAUDE →INVALID
Est.
231.73
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data

Valuation Assumptions

DEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y5.0%6.8%
-0.7pp
6.0%5.5%
EBIT Margin Target27.0%26.5%31.0%27.0%
WACC8.5%8.3%8.5%8.5%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)5.8%8.8%+3.1pp
EBIT Margin Target27.0%34.4%+7.4pp
WACC8.5%7.5%-1.0pp
Based on spot price $231.73 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin26.6%
EBITDA Margin35.6%
ROE25.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.0x
P/E Trailing26.5x
EV / EBITDA17.2x
P/B6.9x
Analyst Range– – –
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and re
Source: Yahoo Finance

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