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AI model estimates for
JPMorgan Chase & Co. vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Pfinancials
303.00 USD
52-Week Range
$256.00
$337.25

5 AI models estimate JPM median target $258.45 (-14.7% vs spot $303.00, model agreement 0.82). Analyst consensus $342.32 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$258.45
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-14.7%
Agreement
0.824/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.70
Dispersion
σ 0.07
Analyst consensus
$342.32(22 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on JPM. Key concern: Economic downturns impacting loan performance. AI consensus estimate 258.45 14.7% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.82). Analyst consensus: 342.32 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokJPMJPMorgan Ch…303.0spot342.3analysts248269290311332352
Bear Case (min)
$222.51
-26.6%
Base Case (median)
$258.45
-14.7%
Bull Case (max)
$303.00
0.0%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:258.45→258.45(+0.0%)
CAGR
+1.0pp(1 ↑)
stableunchangeddata refresh

Model Breakdown

GEMINI →
Est.
303.00
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
258.45
Gap
-14.7%
Conf
0.65
DCF 222.51 → Cal. 258.45
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022-2025) driven by strong net interest in…
  • Forward revenue growth estimate of 12.7% for next 12 months, supported by hig…
  • Trailing ROE of 15.9% indicates strong profitability; target ROE of 16% susta…
Top Risk
  • Rising bond yields and potential credit losses could pressure net interest margins
  • AI debt concentration (15% of corporate bond market) introduces new credit risk
  • Regulatory changes or capital requirements may impact profitability
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. All key inputs remain consistent with prior day.
No change
no change
GPT →ADJ
Est.
258.45
Gap
-14.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 222.51 → Cal. 258.45
Key Drivers
  • Strong historical revenue growth.
  • Investment in digital banking capabilities.
  • Diverse product offerings and geographic presence.
Top Risk
  • Economic downturns impacting loan performance.
  • Regulatory changes affecting banking operations.
  • Increased competition in FinTech and traditional banking.
Delta
No significant changes in assumptions observed compared to yesterday.
No previous data
stableunchanged
GROK →ADJ
Est.
258.45
Gap
-14.7%
Conf
0.65
DCF 222.51 → Cal. 258.45
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% from 2022-2025 provides growth baseline
  • Trailing ROE of 15.9% indicates strong capital returns
  • Beta of 1.02 aligns with market risk for WACC calibration
Top Risk
  • Interest rate volatility impacting net interest margins
  • Regulatory and compliance costs in financial sector
  • Credit losses from economic downturns
Delta
Minor upward adjustment to revenue CAGR reflecting sustained expansion in consumer and investment banking segments; o…
CAGR
+1.0pp
data refreshslight growth uplift
CLAUDE →INVALID
Est.
303.00
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data

Valuation Assumptions

DEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y6.0%–6.0%8.0%
+1.0pp
ROE Target16.0%–15.8%16.0%
WACC11.0%–11.5%11.0%
Terminal Growth2.0%–2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin–%
EBITDA Margin–%
ROE15.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA–x
P/E Trailing14.1x
EV / EBITDA–x
P/B2.4x
Analyst Range– – –
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It operates in three segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management. The company offers deposit, investment and lending products, and cash management; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, payment solutions, travel services, merchant offers, lifestyle benefits, auto loans, and leases to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, and digital and telephone banking. It also provides investment banking, market-making, financing, custody, and securities products and services; corporate strategy and structure advisory, equity and debt market capital-raising, and loan origination and syndication services; cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, clearing, and research; and fund services, liquidity and trading services, and data solutions products for large corporations, financial institutions, merchants, start-ups, sm
Source: Yahoo Finance

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