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JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.

📅 2026-04-03🇺🇸 S&Pfinancials
294.60 USD
52-Week Range
$202.16
$337.25

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$255.00
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-13.4%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$337.75(24 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on JPM. Key concern: Potential economic slowdown and rising interest rates impacting loan demand, ... AI consensus estimate 255.00 13.4% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 337.75 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokJPMJPMorgan Ch…294.6spot337.8analysts245266286307327348
Bear Case (min)
$219.54
-25.5%
Base Case (median)
$255.00
-13.4%
Bull Case (max)
$219.54
-25.5%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:255.00→255.00(+0.0%)
CAGR
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
ROE
+2.0pp(1 ↑)
no-changemacro-headwinds-confirmedgeopolitical-risk-elevated
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE⚖
Est.
255.00
Gap
-13.4%
Conf
0.74
DCF 219.54 → Cal. 255.00
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022–2025) was materially inflated by the F…
  • Trailing ROE of 15.4% is strong for a US money-center bank; sustainable ROE t…
  • Forward EPS of $23.32 at forward P/E of 12.6x implies the market is pricing i…
Top Risk
  • Macroeconomic slowdown risk: geopolitical escalation (Iran conflict flagged by Dimon), …
  • Interest rate sensitivity: potential Fed rate cuts to address macro slowdown would comp…
  • Regulatory capital requirements (Basel III endgame) may constrain capital return capaci…
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model (2026-04-03 vs 2026-04-02). New headlines confirm continued macro he…
No change
no-changemacro-headwinds-confirmedgeopolitical-risk-elevated
DEEPSEEK⚖
Est.
255.00
Gap
-13.4%
Conf
0.70
DCF 219.54 → Cal. 255.00
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022-2025) provides strong base, but future…
  • Trailing ROE of 15.4% indicates strong profitability; target set slightly bel…
  • Market-implied forward P/E of 12.6x suggests moderate growth expectations ali…
Top Risk
  • Macroeconomic slowdown concerns highlighted in recent news could pressure net interest …
  • Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East conflict) may increase market volatility, impa…
  • Interest rate environment shifts could affect net interest margins and asset valuations…
Delta
Maintained core assumptions consistent with previous model, with minor adjustment to revenue growth to reflect update…
CAGR
+0.5pp
ROE
+2.0pp
spot updatenews impactgrowth adjustment
GEMINI⚖
Est.
255.00
Gap
-13.4%
Conf
0.80
DCF 219.54 → Cal. 255.00
Key Drivers
  • Diversified financial services across consumer, commercial, and wealth manage…
  • Strong historical profitability, with trailing Return on Equity at 15.4%, ind…
  • Global market position as a leading financial institution, offering resilienc…
Top Risk
  • Potential economic slowdown and rising interest rates impacting loan demand, credit qua…
  • Geopolitical instability and market volatility, as highlighted by Jamie Dimon, affectin…
  • Intense competition across various financial services sectors, potentially pressing mar…
Delta
All key valuation assumptions, including revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC, terminal growth, ROE target, and payout rat…
No change
no revenue cagr changeno ebit margin changeno wacc change
GPT⚖
Est.
255.00
Gap
-13.4%
Conf
0.70
DCF 219.54 → Cal. 255.00
Key Drivers
  • Strong market position in banking.
  • Diverse range of financial services.
  • Investment in technology for growth.
Top Risk
  • Potential economic slowdown affecting loan demand.
  • Regulatory environment changes.
  • Increased competition from fintech.
Delta
No significant changes noted in the assumptions.
No previous data
stableunchanged
GROK⚖
Est.
255.00
Gap
-13.4%
Conf
0.75
DCF 219.54 → Cal. 255.00
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue growth of 12.5% CAGR from 2022-2025, moderated to 6% due t…
  • Diversified revenue streams across Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial &…
  • Trailing ROE of 15.4% indicates strong profitability, supporting a sustainabl…
Top Risk
  • Global economic slowdown concerns could impact loan demand and investment banking activ…
  • Geopolitical tensions, particularly Iran conflict, may affect risk assets.
  • Regulatory changes or increased scrutiny in key markets could raise compliance costs.
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, with no significant changes in key valuation inputs.
No change
no changestable outlook

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y4.0%4.0%
+0.5pp
3.5%5.0%6.0%
ROE Target15.0%15.0%15.0%15.4%15.0%
WACC11.0%12.0%11.5%11.5%12.0%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin–%
EBITDA Margin–%
ROE15.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA–x
P/E Trailing14.3x
EV / EBITDA–x
P/B2.3x
Analyst Range– – –

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