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AI model estimates for
JPMorgan Chase & Co. vs spot price

2026-07-10🇺🇸 S&Pfinancials
335.47 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$279.10
$343.45

As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate JPM median target $258.10 (-23.1% vs spot $335.47, model agreement 0.92). Analyst consensus $352.76 (21 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$258.10
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-23.1%
Agreement
0.925/5 models
Raw 0.87shrinkage-induced
Dispersion
σ 3.0%
Analyst consensus
$352.76(21 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on JPM. Key concern: Potential for economic downturns or recessions could impact lending volumes, ... AI consensus estimate 258.10 23.1% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.92). Analyst consensus: 352.76 (AI -26.8%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokJPMJPMorgan Ch…335.5spot352.8analysts229257284311339366
Bear Case (min)
$195.13
-41.8%
Base Case (median)
$258.10
-23.1%
Bull Case (max)
$228.91
-31.8%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:258.00→258.10(+0.0%)
ROE
-5.0pp(1 ↓)
no-material-changeearnings-imminentassumptions-stable

What Changed (7 days)

Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for JPM moved from $255.69 to $258.10 (+0.9%); median WACC 10.5% → 10.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 3.3% → 3.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.

Metric7d ago (2026-07-03)Now (2026-07-10)Change
AI consensus estimate$255.69$258.10+0.9%
Median WACC10.50%10.50%+0.00 pp
Median terminal growth2.00%2.00%+0.00 pp
Median revenue CAGR (5y)6.5%7.0%+0.50 pp
Median EBIT margin target38.0%40.0%+2.00 pp
Model dispersion σ3.3%3.0%-0.31 pp

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →
Est.
266.07
Gap
-20.7%
Conf
0.75
DCF 228.91 → Cal. 266.07
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022–2025) reflects post-pandemic recovery …
  • Trailing ROE of 15.9% and net income of ~$57.5B demonstrate best-in-class pro…
  • Forward EPS of $23.93 implies ~17.2% growth vs trailing EPS of $21.20, with Q…
Top Risk
  • Interest rate sensitivity: a Fed rate cut cycle could compress net interest margins and…
  • Credit cycle risk: consumer and commercial loan losses could rise if the US economy slo…
  • Regulatory capital requirements (Basel III endgame) may constrain capital return capaci…
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model. The spot price has risen modestly to $335.47 from ~$330.62, movin…
No change
no-material-changeearnings-imminentassumptions-stable
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
258.10
Gap
-23.1%
Conf
0.75
DCF 217.53 → Cal. 258.10
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022-2025) driven by rising net interest in…
  • Forward revenue growth estimate of 12.7% for next year, supported by strong c…
  • Trailing ROE of 15.9% indicates strong profitability; target ROE reflects sus…
Top Risk
  • Potential cyberattack threats could disrupt operations and increase regulatory costs
  • Interest rate normalization and Fed policy shifts may compress net interest margins
  • Global economic slowdown or recession could increase loan loss provisions and reduce fe…
Delta
No material change from previous model; assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's framework.
No previous data
no changestable outlook
GROK →
Est.
258.10
Gap
-23.1%
Conf
0.65
DCF 217.53 → Cal. 258.10
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR 12.5% (2022-2025) provides strong base
  • Trailing ROE 15.9% supports sustainable profitability
  • Beta 0.98 anchors WACC near 10.5% via CAPM
Top Risk
  • Regulatory and capital requirement changes
  • Cybersecurity threats highlighted in recent warnings
  • Interest rate and Fed policy sensitivity
Delta
No material change in assumptions; data consistent with prior day.
No previous data
no change
GEMINI →
Est.
257.22
Gap
-23.3%
Conf
0.80
DCF 216.27 → Cal. 257.22
Key Drivers
  • JPMorgan Chase's diversified business segments (Consumer & Community Banking,…
  • Strong historical revenue growth (12.5% CAGR 2022-2025) and positive analyst …
  • High profitability, as indicated by a strong trailing ROE of 15.9% and a net …
Top Risk
  • Potential for economic downturns or recessions could impact lending volumes, credit qua…
  • Regulatory scrutiny and potential changes in financial regulations could increase compl…
  • Fluctuations in interest rates could negatively impact net interest margin if not manag…
Delta
The EBIT margin target has been adjusted downwards from 0.40 to 0.35 to better align with the company's derived net i…
ROE
-5.0pp
margin adjustmentroe update
GPT →
Est.
242.42
Gap
-27.7%
Conf
0.80
DCF 195.13 → Cal. 242.42
Key Drivers
  • Stable revenue growth through diversified segments
  • Continued investment in technology and digital banking
  • Strong market position and brand recognition
Top Risk
  • Regulatory pressures affecting profitability
  • Economic downturn impacting lending and investment
  • Cybersecurity threats to operations
Delta
There have been no significant changes in the assumptions since the last report.
No previous data
no changestable

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y6.0%7.0%10.0%6.0%8.0%
ROE Target15.5%16.0%15.9%15.9%16.0%
WACC10.5%10.5%10.5%11.5%10.5%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin–%
EBITDA Margin–%
ROE15.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA–x
P/E Trailing15.6x
EV / EBITDA–x
P/B2.6x
Analyst Range295.00 – 411.00
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It operates in three segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management. The company offers deposit, investment and lending products, and cash management; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, payment solutions, travel services, merchant offers, lifestyle benefits, auto loans, and leases to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, and digital and telephone banking. It also provides investment banking, market-making, financing, custody, and securities products and services; corporate strategy and structure advisory, equity and debt market capital-raising, and loan origination and syndication services; cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, clearing, and research; and fund services, liquidity and trading services, and data solutions products for large corporations, financial institutions, merchants, start-ups, sm
Source: Yahoo Finance

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