← Back to dashboard

AI model estimates for
KONE Oyj vs spot price

2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHindustrials
50.74 EUR
52-Week Range
49.83 €
70.00 €

5 AI models estimate KNEBV median target 57.66 € (+13.6% vs spot 50.74 €, model agreement 0.83). Analyst consensus 61.67 € (23 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
57.66 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+13.6%
Agreement
0.835/5 models
Raw 0.83
Dispersion
σ 0.07
Analyst consensus
61.67 €(23 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are positive on KNEBV. Key driver: Transformative acquisition of TK Elevator (€29.4bn deal) expected to create w... AI consensus estimate 57.66 13.6% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.83). Analyst consensus: 61.67 (AI -6.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokKNEBVKONE Oyj50.7spot61.7analysts49.352.255.258.161.063.9
Bear Case (min)
50.74 €
0.0%
Base Case (median)
57.66 €
+13.6%
Bull Case (max)
62.89 €
24.0%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:59.39→57.66(-2.9%)
no assumption changestable modeltke deal pending

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →
Est.
62.53
Gap
+23.2%
Conf
0.70
DCF 62.89 → Cal. 62.53
Key Drivers
  • Transformative acquisition of TK Elevator (€29.4bn deal) expected to create w…
  • Post-merger scale benefits, procurement synergies, and overhead rationalizati…
  • Recurring maintenance and modernization revenues (~50%+ of sales) provide hig…
Top Risk
  • TKE acquisition integration risk is substantial given deal size (~€29.4bn); execution c…
  • Significant leverage increase post-TKE acquisition will raise financial risk profile ma…
  • China construction slowdown remains a structural headwind given KONE's historical expos…
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model; all four core inputs (revenue_cagr_5y 7%, ebit_margin_target 12.5…
No change
no assumption changestable modeltke deal pending
GPT →
Est.
59.39
Gap
+17.0%
Conf
0.70
DCF 58.41 → Cal. 59.39
Key Drivers
  • Expansion into new markets enhancing growth potential.
  • Acquisition of TK Elevator may increase scale and efficiency.
  • Strong product offerings in the elevator and escalator sectors.
Top Risk
  • Cyclical nature of the industrials sector may impact revenue.
  • Increased competition in the elevator and escalator market.
  • Economic downturns could affect construction projects.
Delta
Assumptions remain stable with a focus on the company's growth prospects post-acquisition.
No previous data
stableconsistent
GROK →
Est.
57.66
Gap
+13.6%
Conf
0.65
DCF 55.94 → Cal. 57.66
Key Drivers
  • Transformative TKE acquisition adds immediate scale and revenue base
  • Historical revenue CAGR ~1% with stable maintenance mix
  • Trailing EBIT margin 11.8% provides normalized target anchor
Top Risk
  • Integration and regulatory execution risk on €29bn TKE deal
  • Cyclical exposure to construction and capex cycles
  • Margin pressure from price competition in new equipment
Delta
Minor refinement to revenue CAGR to reflect post-deal integration timeline; no material shift in margin or WACC assum…
No change
acquisitionintegration
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
57.46
Gap
+13.2%
Conf
0.70
DCF 55.65 → Cal. 57.46
Key Drivers
  • Acquisition of TK Elevator expected to create world's largest elevator compan…
  • Strong service and modernization backlog provides recurring revenue visibility
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 1.0% anchors conservative growth; deal synergies c…
Top Risk
  • Integration risk from the large TK Elevator acquisition could pressure margins near term
  • Cyclical exposure to global construction and real estate markets
  • Regulatory and antitrust approvals for the deal may impose conditions or delays
Delta
No material new information since yesterday; assumptions remain unchanged.
No previous data
no change
GEMINI →
Est.
50.74
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y7.0%5.0%–5.0%5.5%
EBIT Margin Target12.5%13.0%–14.0%12.0%
WACC8.6%8.7%–8.8%8.5%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%–2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)5.3%3.8%-1.4pp
EBIT Margin Target12.8%11.2%-1.6pp
WACC8.6%9.3%+0.7pp
Based on spot price 50.74 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin11.8%
EBITDA Margin13.7%
ROE35.0%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing26.8x
EV / EBITDA16.8x
P/B12.5x
Analyst Range– – –
KONE Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the elevator and escalator business worldwide. The company provides elevators, escalators, automatic building doors, and integrated access control solutions, as well as maintenance and modernization solutions. It also offers KONE Office Flow, a modular connected people flow solution that delivers personalized access and enhanced user experiences in workplaces; health and well-being solutions for elevators, escalators, and doors; KONE Access, an access control system, which is integrated with elevator system and building doors; KONE Destination, a destination control system that reduce waiting and travel times; KONE infotainment, a communication channel for building tenants and visitors; and monitoring solutions that enable real-time inspection of elevators and escalators. In addition, the company provides people flow planning and consulting services; solutions for special buildings and large projects; cybersecurity solutions; and energy solutions for greener buildings. It also offers hands-on, immersive training to technicians, engineers, and service professional through a training center in Egypt. KONE Oyj was founded in 1908 an
Source: Yahoo Finance

Recent News

How The KONE (HLSE:KNEBV) Investment Story Is Shifting As Analyst Views Diverge2026-05-20
Analysis-Kone's new TK Elevator deal comes amid climate change on European champions2026-05-04
Is It Time To Rethink KONE (HLSE:KNEBV) After Recent Share Price Weakness?2026-04-30
KONE Oyj (KNYJF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth and Strategic TKE Combination2026-04-30
Subscribe to Email UpdatesFree · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime · Privacy Policy
AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-22
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy