As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate META median target $809.81 (+9.9% vs spot $736.72, model agreement 0.62). Analyst consensus $813.65 (58 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$809.81
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+9.9%
Agreement
0.625/5 models
Raw 0.62
Dispersion
σ 20.1%
Analyst consensus
$813.65(58 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$810.96
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on META.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:809.81→809.81(+0.0%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑)
MARG+1.0pp(1 ↑)
stable×2no-changeassumptions-stable
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for META moved from $844.65 to $809.81 (-4.1%); median WACC 10.5% → 10.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 26.2% → 20.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Family of Apps ad revenue growth supported by AI features
Historical revenue CAGR 19.9% (2022-2025) with forward 28% 1y estimate
High trailing EBIT margin 36.5% with operating leverage potential
Top Risk
Elevated capex intensity at 30.5% of revenue
Regulatory and teen safety pressures
Competition in social and AI advertising
Delta
No material change in core assumptions; inputs remain consistent with prior day.
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.0%
11.0%
13.5%
9.0%
+1.0pp
15.0%
EBIT Margin Target
40.0%
34.0%
36.0%
39.0%
+1.0pp
37.0%
WACC
10.6%
10.5%
10.0%
11.0%
10.5%
Terminal Growth
3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
13.5%
15.0%
+1.5pp
EBIT Margin Target
37.0%
41.1%
+4.1pp
WACC
10.5%
9.9%
-0.6pp
Based on spot price $736.72 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin36.5%
EBITDA Margin48.0%
ROE31.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.2x
P/E Trailing27.6x
EV / EBITDA17.3x
P/B7.2x
Analyst Range580.00 – 1050.00
Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality (VR) headsets, and AI glasses in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). The FoA segment offers Facebook, which enables people to build community through feed, reels, stories, groups, marketplace, and other; Instagram that brings people closer through Instagram feed, stories, reels, live, and messaging; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, communities, and businesses across platforms and devices through text, audio, and video calls; Meta AI, an assistant that's available across apps, as a stand-alone app, on AI glasses, and on the web; Threads, an application for text-based updates and public conversations; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact. The RL segment provides virtual and augmented reality products, including consumer hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key driver: Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) on a $201B base provides a stro...
AI consensus estimate 809.81 9.9% above the current price.
Model agreement is moderate (0.62).
Analyst consensus: 813.65 (AI -0.5%).
Bear Case (min)
$519.22
-29.5%
Base Case (median)
$809.81
+9.9%
Bull Case (max)
$850.99
15.5%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)