574.46 USD
52-Week Range
$479.80
$796.25
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$799.85
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+39.2%
Agreement
0.685/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.16
Analyst consensus
$861.76(60 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on META. Key driver: Expansion into virtual reality and AI technologies AI consensus estimate 799.85 39.2% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.68). Analyst consensus: 861.76 (AI -7.2%).Bear Case (min)
$560.15
-2.5%
Base Case (median)
$799.85
+39.2%
Bull Case (max)
$1140.62
98.6%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:799.85→799.85(+0.0%)
CAGR-0.5pp(1 ↓)
MARG-1.0pp(1 ↓)
WACC+0.3pp(2 ↑)
no-assumption-changerisk-reinforcedvaluation-stable
Model Breakdown
GPT
DCF 1140.62 → Cal. 1056.96
Key Drivers
- Expansion into virtual reality and AI technologies
- Strong user engagement across platforms
- Investments in new product features and markets
Top Risk
- Regulatory challenges from lawsuits
- Increased competition in social media and VR spaces
- Market sensitivity to advertising revenue shifts
Delta
No previous data
revenue growthmargin expansionrisk assessment
GEMINI
DCF 860.23 → Cal. 860.69
Key Drivers
- Continued strong user engagement and growth across the Family of Apps (Facebo…
- Successful monetization of new features and AI integrations within existing p…
- Long-term potential from strategic investments in Reality Labs (VR/AR) and AI…
Top Risk
- Intense competition from other social media platforms and emerging AI technologies.
- Increasing regulatory scrutiny and potential legal challenges related to data privacy, …
- High capital expenditures in Reality Labs and AI may not yield expected returns, impact…
Delta
WACC+0.3pp
minor adjustmentrecalibration
CLAUDE
DCF 773.32 → Cal. 799.85
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) provides a strong baseline; mod…
- AI-driven ad targeting improvements (Advantage+ suite, Meta AI integration ac…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 41.4% is already high for the sector; steady-state ta…
Top Risk
- Social media safety litigation and youth engagement design lawsuits add material legal …
- Elevated capex-to-revenue ratio (~34.7%) for AI data centers and Reality Labs compresse…
- Reality Labs segment continues to generate significant operating losses, acting as a st…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changerisk-reinforcedvaluation-stable
GROK
DCF 773.32 → Cal. 799.85
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth (19.9% CAGR) supports a forward-looking CAGR…
- High trailing EBIT margin (41.4%) adjusted slightly upward to 43% due to expe…
- WACC set at 10.5%, aligned with technology sector midpoint (9.5-12%) but adju…
Top Risk
- Regulatory and legal challenges, including lawsuits over social media addiction and you…
- High capex intensity may pressure near-term margins if Reality Labs investments underpe…
- Competitive pressures in digital advertising and VR/AR markets could erode market share.
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsno major update
DEEPSEEK⚖
DCF 560.15 → Cal. 650.63
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022-2025) provides strong baseline for fut…
- Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of 23.8%, indicating cont…
- High trailing EBIT margin of 41.4% demonstrates significant operating leverag…
Top Risk
- High capital expenditure intensity (Capex/Revenue 34.7%) pressures free cash flow.
- Reality Labs segment represents a significant, long-term investment with uncertain prof…
- Market saturation in core social media markets could pressure user growth and engagement.
Delta
CAGR-0.5pp
MARG-1.0pp
WACC+0.3pp
growth moderationmargin stabilitycapex intensity
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 15.0% | 13.0% -0.5pp | 20.0% | 18.0% | 15.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 43.0% | 38.0% -1.0pp | 40.0% | 45.0% | 43.0% |
| WACC | 10.5% | 10.8% +0.3pp | 11.5% +0.3pp | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin41.4%
EBITDA Margin50.7%
ROE27.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.0x
P/E Trailing24.0x
EV / EBITDA14.3x
P/B6.7x
Analyst Range– – –
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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