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AI model estimates for
Meta Platforms Inc. vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Top disagreement #2
607.38 USD
52-Week Range
$520.26
$796.25

5 AI models estimate META median target $831.74 (+36.9% vs spot $607.38, model agreement 0.71). Analyst consensus $826.69 (58 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$831.74
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+36.9%
Agreement
0.715/5 models
Raw 0.63
Dispersion
σ 0.13
Analyst consensus
$826.69(58 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on META. Key driver: Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) provides a strong anchor; moder... AI consensus estimate 831.74 36.9% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.71). Analyst consensus: 826.69 (AI +0.6%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMETAMeta Platfo…607.4spot826.7analysts5616567528479421037
Bear Case (min)
$584.29
-3.8%
Base Case (median)
$831.74
+36.9%
Bull Case (max)
$1061.29
74.7%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:769.59→831.74(+8.1%)
CAGR
+5.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG
+2.0pp(1 ↑)
assumption-stableregulatory-headline-risktexas-lawsuit-whatsapp

Model Breakdown

GPT →
Est.
990.91
Gap
+63.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 1061.29 → Cal. 990.91
Key Drivers
  • Strong demand for digital connectivity and VR
  • Ongoing investments in AI and augmented reality
  • Growth prospects in advertising revenue
Top Risk
  • Increased regulatory scrutiny and potential fines
  • Competition from other tech platforms
  • Market volatility affecting advertising budgets
Delta
Assumptions have been updated based on recent performance and growth outlook.
CAGR
+5.0pp
MARG
+2.0pp
assumption updateconfidence raised
GEMINI →
Est.
872.28
Gap
+43.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 891.82 → Cal. 872.28
Key Drivers
  • Continued strong user engagement and monetization across the Family of Apps (…
  • Significant investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Reality Labs (VR/…
  • Potential for operating leverage as the company scales its core advertising b…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in social media, advertising, and emerging technologies like AI and…
  • Regulatory scrutiny and privacy concerns, as highlighted by recent lawsuits (e.g., Texa…
  • Uncertainty and long payback periods associated with investments in Reality Labs.
Delta
Yesterday's model data was unavailable, so no comparison of assumptions can be made.
No previous data
no comparison
CLAUDE →
Est.
831.74
Gap
+36.9%
Conf
0.77
DCF 833.90 → Cal. 831.74
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) provides a strong anchor; moder…
  • Analyst consensus 1Y revenue growth of 33.1% and EPS growth of 62.4% reflect …
  • AI-driven workforce restructuring and operational efficiency gains reinforce …
Top Risk
  • Heavy capex commitment (~32.4% of revenue) for AI data centers and infrastructure creat…
  • Reality Labs segment continues to generate material operating losses, acting as a struc…
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in the US and EU — including Texas lawsuit over Whats…
Delta
Assumptions are held flat versus yesterday's model. Today's incremental news — the Texas lawsuit against Meta and Wha…
No change
assumption-stableregulatory-headline-risktexas-lawsuit-whatsapp
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
769.59
Gap
+26.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 745.12 → Cal. 769.59
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022-2025) provides a strong base, but futu…
  • Massive AI infrastructure investments (capex-to-revenue 32.4%) are expected t…
  • Family of Apps (FoA) segment remains highly profitable with strong operating …
Top Risk
  • Regulatory headwinds in the US and EU could impact data usage and advertising revenue.
  • Heavy capital expenditure on AI and Reality Labs may not yield expected returns, pressu…
  • Intense competition from other digital advertising platforms (e.g., Google, Amazon, Tik…
Delta
No material changes from yesterday's assumptions. The model continues to reflect strong historical growth and margin …
No change
no changestable outlook
GROK →
Est.
657.01
Gap
+8.2%
Conf
0.65
DCF 584.29 → Cal. 657.01
Key Drivers
  • Family of Apps ad revenue growth remains robust with AI-driven targeting
  • Reality Labs losses narrowing as hardware scale improves
  • High operating leverage supports margin expansion beyond trailing 38.7%
Top Risk
  • Elevated capex intensity (32.4% of revenue) pressures near-term free cash flow
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across US and EU markets
  • Ad spending cyclicality tied to macro conditions
Delta
Slight moderation in 5y revenue CAGR to reflect maturing growth profile while maintaining high steady-state margin as…
CAGR
-1.0pp
cagr adjustedmargin stable

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y15.5%14.0%18.0%20.0%
+5.0pp
12.0%
-1.0pp
EBIT Margin Target42.0%42.0%39.0%40.0%
+2.0pp
40.0%
WACC10.5%10.5%10.7%10.7%10.7%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.5%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)15.5%12.5%-3.0pp
EBIT Margin Target40.0%32.6%-7.4pp
WACC10.7%12.0%+1.3pp
Based on spot price $607.38 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin38.7%
EBITDA Margin50.8%
ROE32.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing21.8x
EV / EBITDA14.2x
P/B6.3x
Analyst Range– – –
Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality (VR) headsets, and AI glasses in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). The FoA segment offers Facebook, which enables people to build community through feed, reels, stories, groups, marketplace, and other; Instagram that brings people closer through Instagram feed, stories, reels, live, and messaging; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, communities, and businesses across platforms and devices through text, audio, and video calls; Meta AI, an assistant that's available across apps, as a stand-alone app, on AI glasses, and on the web; Threads, an application for text-based updates and public conversations; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact. The RL segment provides virtual and augmented reality products, including consumer hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected
Source: Yahoo Finance

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