← Back to dashboard
AI model estimates for Meta Platforms Inc. vs spot price
2026-07-10🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Top disagreement #1
631.48 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$520.26
$796.25
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate META median target $727.41 (+15.2% vs spot $631.48, model agreement 0.59). Analyst consensus $827.91 (58 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$727.41
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+15.2%
Agreement
0.595/5 models
Raw 0.50
Dispersion
σ 22.8%
Analyst consensus
$827.91(58 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on META. Key driver: Continued robust user growth and engagement across the Family of Apps (Facebo... AI consensus estimate 727.41 15.2% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.59). Analyst consensus: 827.91 (AI -12.1%).Bear Case (min)
$599.33
-5.1%
Base Case (median)
$727.41
+15.2%
Bull Case (max)
$1309.96
107.4%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:727.48→727.41(-0.0%)
WACC-0.5pp(1 ↓)
no-assumption-changeai-chip-vertical-integration-notedhyperscaler-profit-delay-risk-flagged
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for META moved from $843.11 to $727.41 (-13.7%); median WACC 11.5% → 11.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 31.5% → 22.8%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $843.11 | $727.41 | -13.7% |
| Median WACC | 11.50% | 11.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 16.0% | 15.0% | -1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 40.0% | 40.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 31.5% | 22.8% | -8.66 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 1309.96 → Cal. 1165.35
Key Drivers
- Continued robust user growth and engagement across the Family of Apps (Facebo…
- Successful monetization of new features and formats, particularly Reels, Meta…
- Significant returns on investment from heavy capital expenditures in AI infra…
Top Risk
- Intense competition from other social media platforms and AI developers for user attent…
- Regulatory scrutiny and potential anti-trust actions, which could impact business opera…
- High capital expenditures for AI and Reality Labs may not yield expected returns or pro…
Delta
WACC-0.5pp
WACC Adjusted
DCF 745.12 → Cal. 769.96
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~20% (2022–2025) provides a strong anchor; moderat…
- AI-driven advertising monetization via Meta AI, Advantage+ tools, and Llama-p…
- Family of Apps trailing EBIT margin of 38.7% has meaningful operating leverag…
Top Risk
- Hyperscaler capex cycle risk: ~32% of revenue committed to capex ($69.7B trailing) comp…
- Regulatory and antitrust pressure in EU and US (data privacy, potential forced divestit…
- Advertising market cyclicality — a macro slowdown or recession would disproportionately…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changeai-chip-vertical-integration-notedhyperscaler-profit-delay-risk-flagged
DCF 684.33 → Cal. 727.41
Key Drivers
- FoA segment delivers 38.7% trailing EBIT margin with high operating leverage
- Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022-2025) supported by scale in advertising
- Heavy AI/data-center capex (32.4% of revenue) expected to sustain long-term g…
Top Risk
- Reality Labs segment remains margin-dilutive with uncertain monetization timeline
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across US/EU could constrain growth levers
- Rapid hyperscaler capex cycle risks over-investment if AI returns disappoint
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 635.26 → Cal. 693.06
Key Drivers
- Strong market presence through diverse platforms
- Focus on AI and VR for future growth
- Stable revenue growth trajectory in the tech sector
Top Risk
- Regulatory scrutiny could impact operations
- High capital expenditures affecting short-term margins
- Intense competition in tech and social media
Delta
No previous data
stabilityvaluation
DCF 599.33 → Cal. 667.91
Key Drivers
- AI-powered advertising targeting driving revenue growth
- Expansion of Meta AI and generative AI features across apps
- Long-term monetization potential of Reality Labs VR/AR hardware
Top Risk
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions
- Competition from TikTok and other social platforms
- High capex intensity (32.4% of revenue) may pressure returns if growth slows
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 14.0% | 15.0% | 25.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 42.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| WACC | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% -0.5pp | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 15.0% | 14.9% | -0.1pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 40.0% | 39.7% | -0.3pp |
| WACC | 11.5% | 11.6% | +0.1pp |
Based on spot price $631.48 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin38.7%
EBITDA Margin50.8%
ROE32.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing22.7x
EV / EBITDA14.7x
P/B6.6x
Analyst Range664.46 – 1015.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
Recent News
More in technology
Subscribe to Email UpdatesFree · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime · Privacy Policy
AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy