15.10 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
10.22 €
17.91 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate METSO median target 12.49 € (-17.3% vs spot 15.10 €, model agreement 0.83). Analyst consensus 17.09 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
12.49 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-17.3%
Agreement
0.835/5 models
Raw 0.74
Dispersion
σ 7.1%
Analyst consensus
17.09 €(19 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on METSO. Key concern: Cyclicality of the global aggregates, minerals processing, and metals refinin... AI consensus estimate 12.49 17.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.83). Analyst consensus: 17.09 (AI -26.9%).Bear Case (min)
10.13 €
-32.9%
Base Case (median)
12.49 €
-17.3%
Bull Case (max)
13.28 €
-12.1%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:12.49→12.49(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
stable assumptionscontract wins confirmedminor change
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for METSO moved from 13.46 € to 12.49 € (-7.2%); median WACC 8.5% → 9.5% (+1.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 6.4% → 7.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 13.46 € | 12.49 € | -7.2% |
| Median WACC | 8.50% | 9.50% | +1.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 14.0% | 14.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 6.4% | 7.1% | +0.64 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 13.28 → Cal. 14.42
Key Drivers
- Metso's exposure to copper, lithium, and critical minerals capex cycles provi…
- Recent contract wins (Tia Maria Peru, Blackwater Mine Canada phase two, South…
- New lithium carbonate production method launch and mineralogy analysis invest…
Top Risk
- Mining capex is highly cyclical; a commodity price downturn or prolonged China slowdown…
- Revenue declined from EUR 5,390M (2023) to EUR 5,026M (2024) before recovering to EUR 5…
- Elevated trailing P/E of 25.9x and EV/EBITDA of 15.9x leave limited margin of safety if…
Delta
No change
no changestable assumptionscontract wins confirmed
DCF 12.86 → Cal. 14.13
Key Drivers
- Investment in new technologies
- Expansion in lithium production
- Strong order backlog
Top Risk
- Cyclicality of industrial sectors
- Global economic uncertainties
- Regulatory changes affecting operations
Delta
No previous data
stabilityno change
DCF 10.52 → Cal. 12.49
Key Drivers
- Global demand for aggregates, minerals processing, and metals refining indust…
- Diversified portfolio of equipment, end-to-end solutions, and services, inclu…
- Strong trailing EBIT margin of 13.7% indicates robust operational efficiency.
Top Risk
- Cyclicality of the global aggregates, minerals processing, and metals refining industri…
- Exposure to global economic slowdowns impacting capital expenditure decisions by clients.
- Intense competition within the industrial equipment and services market.
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
minor changerevenue cagr up
DCF 10.52 → Cal. 12.49
Key Drivers
- New equipment contracts (Tia Maria, Blackwater) support mid-term revenue visi…
- Lithium carbonate and mineralogy investments expand addressable markets
- Historical revenue CAGR 1.8% with recent stabilization around 5.2B EUR
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to mining and aggregates capex cycles
- Net debt/EBITDA 1.32 adds leverage sensitivity
- Low historical revenue CAGR indicates limited organic growth without M&A
Delta
No previous data
no changenews update
DCF 10.13 → Cal. 12.22
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 1.8% (2022–2025) is conservative; future growth su…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 13.7% is within industrials range; steady-state targe…
- Beta of 1.2 and Finnish 10Y bond ~3% with ERP ~4.5% yield a CAPM-based WACC o…
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to mining and aggregates sectors could cause revenue dips of 10–20% i…
- Geopolitical and regulatory risks in project locations (Peru, Canada) may delay contrac…
- Commodity price volatility could impact customer capital spending and order flow.
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% +0.5pp | 5.0% | 4.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.5% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| WACC | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.5% | 9.4% | +4.9pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.0% | 27.2% | +13.2pp |
| WACC | 9.5% | 7.4% | -2.1pp |
Based on spot price 15.10 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin13.7%
EBITDA Margin16.3%
ROE18.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.3x
P/E Trailing25.9x
EV / EBITDA15.9x
P/B4.5x
Analyst Range13.00 – 21.50
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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