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AI model estimates for
Microsoft Corporation vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
419.09 USD
52-Week Range
$356.28
$555.45

5 AI models estimate MSFT median target $470.14 (+12.2% vs spot $419.09, model agreement 0.84). Analyst consensus $560.63 (54 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$470.14
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+12.2%
Agreement
0.845/5 models
Raw 0.77
Dispersion
σ 0.06
Analyst consensus
$560.63(54 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on MSFT. Key driver: Azure cloud platform sustaining high-teens to low-twenties growth driven by A... AI consensus estimate 470.14 12.2% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.84). Analyst consensus: 560.63 (AI -16.1%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMSFTMicrosoft C…419.1spot560.6analysts402437472507543578
Bear Case (min)
$409.89
-2.2%
Base Case (median)
$470.14
+12.2%
Bull Case (max)
$534.88
27.6%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:470.14→470.14(+0.0%)
stable×2no-assumption-changegithub-security-incident-noted

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →
Est.
542.60
Gap
+29.5%
Conf
0.75
DCF 534.88 → Cal. 542.60
Key Drivers
  • Azure cloud platform sustaining high-teens to low-twenties growth driven by A…
  • Copilot integration across Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, and GitHub creates du…
  • EBIT margin of 40.4% trailing with structural upside from operating leverage …
Top Risk
  • Heavy AI infrastructure capex (20.3% of revenue) compresses near-term free cash flow an…
  • GitHub security incident (hackers claiming access to internal systems) highlights cyber…
  • Intensifying competition from AWS, Google Cloud, and emerging AI-native platforms could…
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. Today's notable development is the GitHub security scare (hackers c…
No change
no-assumption-changegithub-security-incident-notedai-infrastructure-thesis-intact
GPT →
Est.
476.25
Gap
+13.6%
Conf
0.75
DCF 440.08 → Cal. 476.25
Key Drivers
  • Strong growth in cloud services and software subscriptions
  • Continuous investment in AI and productivity tools
  • Expansion opportunities in emerging markets
Top Risk
  • Competitive pressures in cloud and software markets
  • Regulatory challenges and compliance costs
  • Economic downturn impacting technology spending
Delta
No significant changes in assumptions were observed.
No previous data
valuationMSFTfinancial model
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
470.14
Gap
+12.2%
Conf
0.70
DCF 431.35 → Cal. 470.14
Key Drivers
  • Azure and AI services driving high-margin cloud revenue growth
  • Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption expanding commercial subscription revenue
  • Strong recurring revenue base from Office, Dynamics, and LinkedIn
Top Risk
  • Regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions in US and EU could constrain growth
  • Intense competition from AWS, Google Cloud, and AI startups
  • High capex requirements for AI data centers may pressure free cash flow
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR, EBIT margin target, WACC, and terminal growth…
No change
stableno change
GEMINI →
Est.
466.73
Gap
+11.4%
Conf
0.75
DCF 426.49 → Cal. 466.73
Key Drivers
  • Continued robust growth in Azure cloud services driven by digital transformat…
  • Expansion and monetization of AI-powered products across Microsoft 365 and ot…
  • Sustained strength in enterprise software and services, including Microsoft 3…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in the cloud computing market from major players like AWS and Googl…
  • Potential for increased regulatory scrutiny on market dominance and AI ethics.
  • Cybersecurity threats and data breaches impacting customer trust and operational integr…
Delta
Yesterday's model was unavailable, so no direct comparison of assumptions can be made.
No previous data
unavailable yesterday
GROK →
Est.
455.11
Gap
+8.6%
Conf
0.72
DCF 409.89 → Cal. 455.11
Key Drivers
  • Azure and AI-driven revenue acceleration
  • High-margin software subscription mix shift
  • Operating leverage from scale in cloud services
Top Risk
  • Regulatory and antitrust pressure on AI and cloud
  • Capex intensity in data centers may pressure margins
  • Macro IT spending slowdown
Delta
Slight upward revision to long-term revenue CAGR and margin target reflecting sustained AI momentum and operating lev…
No change
stableai-growth

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y15.5%12.0%15.0%12.0%14.0%
EBIT Margin Target43.0%44.0%41.5%45.0%43.0%
WACC9.6%9.5%10.5%9.5%10.5%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.5%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)14.0%12.2%-1.9pp
EBIT Margin Target43.0%36.9%-6.1pp
WACC9.6%10.4%+0.8pp
Based on spot price $419.09 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin40.4%
EBITDA Margin58.0%
ROE36.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.3x
P/E Trailing24.9x
EV / EBITDA17.1x
P/B7.5x
Analyst Range– – –
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner netwo
Source: Yahoo Finance

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