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AI model estimates for Microsoft Corporation vs spot price
2026-07-10🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
384.36 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$349.20
$555.45
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate MSFT median target $440.01 (+14.5% vs spot $384.36, model agreement 0.71). Analyst consensus $559.93 (55 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$440.01
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+14.5%
Agreement
0.715/5 models
Raw 0.60
Dispersion
σ 13.5%
Analyst consensus
$559.93(55 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are positive on MSFT. Key driver: Continued strong demand for cloud services, particularly Azure, driven by dig... AI consensus estimate 440.01 14.5% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.71). Analyst consensus: 559.93 (AI -21.4%).Bear Case (min)
$292.10
-24.0%
Base Case (median)
$440.01
+14.5%
Bull Case (max)
$509.13
32.5%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:440.01→440.01(+0.0%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no-assumption-changeenterprise-churn-riskhyperscaler-capex-risk
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for MSFT moved from $450.05 to $440.01 (-2.2%); median WACC 10.5% → 11.0% (+0.50 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 11.3% → 13.5%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $450.05 | $440.01 | -2.2% |
| Median WACC | 10.50% | 11.00% | +0.50 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.0% | 14.0% | +2.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 42.0% | 42.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 11.3% | 13.5% | +2.23 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 509.13 → Cal. 524.37
Key Drivers
- Strong growth in cloud computing and AI integration
- High recurring revenue from subscription-based products
- Expansion of Microsoft 365 and Dynamics products
Top Risk
- Increased competition in cloud services
- Potential regulatory scrutiny
- Economic downturn affecting IT spending
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
WACC-1.0pp
stableupward adjustment
DCF 471.51 → Cal. 498.03
Key Drivers
- Azure cloud platform continues to compound at high rates, with AI workloads (…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.4% (FY2022–FY2025) is expected to sustain and m…
- AI monetization via Copilot across M365, GitHub, and Dynamics represents a me…
Top Risk
- Hyperscaler capex intensity remains elevated ($64.6B+) and could compress free cash flo…
- Starbucks replacing Microsoft and IBM software to cut $400M in spend signals that enter…
- Intensifying competition from AWS, Google Cloud, and emerging AI-native cloud providers…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changeenterprise-churn-riskhyperscaler-capex-risk
DCF 388.61 → Cal. 440.01
Key Drivers
- Continued strong demand for cloud services, particularly Azure, driven by dig…
- Significant growth potential from AI integration across Microsoft's product p…
- High operating leverage from a scalable software and subscription-based busin…
Top Risk
- Intense competition in the cloud computing and AI markets from major hyperscalers and s…
- High capital expenditures required for building and maintaining advanced AI infrastruct…
- Potential for increased regulatory scrutiny on large technology companies regarding mar…
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 309.41 → Cal. 384.57
Key Drivers
- Azure and cloud revenue growth continuing above 20% near-term
- Copilot and AI product adoption driving operating leverage
- High recurring revenue base from Microsoft 365 subscriptions
Top Risk
- Elevated capex intensity at 20.3% of revenue for data centers
- AI infrastructure electricity and supply constraints
- Intense competition in cloud and generative AI from AWS and Google
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 292.10 → Cal. 372.45
Key Drivers
- Azure and AI services (Copilot, OpenAI integration) driving accelerated cloud…
- Recurring subscription revenue from Microsoft 365 commercial and consumer seg…
- Operating leverage from scale in high-margin cloud and SaaS offerings
Top Risk
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in US and EU could impose restrictions or fines
- High capex (20%+ of revenue) may pressure free cash flow if revenue growth decelerates
- Intense competition from AWS, Google Cloud, and other SaaS vendors
Delta
No previous data
unchanged
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 15.0% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% +1.0pp | 11.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 43.0% | 41.0% | 41.0% | 45.0% | 42.0% |
| WACC | 10.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% -1.0pp | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 14.0% | 14.6% | +0.6pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 42.0% | 43.9% | +1.9pp |
| WACC | 11.0% | 10.8% | -0.3pp |
Based on spot price $384.36 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin40.4%
EBITDA Margin58.0%
ROE36.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.3x
P/E Trailing22.8x
EV / EBITDA15.7x
P/B6.9x
Analyst Range400.00 – 870.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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