As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate NESTE median target 32.99 € (+2.8% vs spot 32.08 €, model agreement 0.77). Analyst consensus 35.42 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
32.99 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+2.8%
Agreement
0.775/5 models
Raw 0.77
Dispersion
σ 10.1%
Analyst consensus
35.42 €(19 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
33.72 €
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are positive on NESTE.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:32.99→32.99(+0.0%)
stable assumptionsday30 confirmationspot price minor decrease
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NESTE moved from 32.99 € to 32.99 € (+0.0%); median WACC 8.6% → 9.0% (+0.40 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 11.0% → 10.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Capacity expansion in renewable products, including Singapore SAF expansion a…
Increasing regulatory mandates for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) across Eur…
Recovery of renewable product sales margins towards normalized mid-cycle leve…
Top Risk
High volatility in renewable feedstock costs (waste and residue oils) impacting refinin…
Regulatory changes or enforcement delays regarding biofuel blending mandates in key jur…
Rising competition as traditional oil majors scale up renewable fuel production capabil…
Delta
Valuation assumptions are maintained from yesterday as mid-term fundamental outlook and energy transition dynamics re…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.0%
4.0%
4.5%
3.0%
4.0%
EBIT Margin Target
9.0%
9.0%
9.5%
8.0%
9.0%
WACC
8.6%
9.0%
9.0%
8.0%
9.3%
Terminal Growth
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
4.0%
8.5%
+4.5pp
EBIT Margin Target
9.0%
12.6%
+3.6pp
WACC
9.0%
7.1%
-1.9pp
Based on spot price 32.08 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin1.7%
EBITDA Margin13.2%
ROE20.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.3x
P/E Trailing16.2x
EV / EBITDA10.4x
P/B2.9x
Analyst Range18.40 – 41.50
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key driver: Trailing EBIT margin of 1.7% is severely cycle-depressed; normalized mid-cycl...
AI consensus estimate 32.99 2.8% above the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.77).
Analyst consensus: 35.42 (AI -6.9%).
Bear Case (min)
26.44 €
-17.6%
Base Case (median)
32.99 €
+2.8%
Bull Case (max)
36.58 €
14.0%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)