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AI model estimates for NVIDIA Corporation vs spot price
2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Top disagreement #1
227.98 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$164.07
$236.54
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate NVDA median target $176.35 (-22.6% vs spot $227.98, model agreement 0.54). Analyst consensus $305.79 (58 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$176.35
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-22.6%
Agreement
0.545/5 models
Raw 0.54
Dispersion
σ 28.5%
Analyst consensus
$305.79(58 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$215.18
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on NVDA. Key concern: Potential cyclicality and demand digestion phases in the semiconductor and AI... AI consensus estimate 176.35 22.6% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.54). Analyst consensus: 305.79 (AI -42.3%).Bear Case (min)
$122.32
-46.3%
Base Case (median)
$176.35
-22.6%
Bull Case (max)
$287.97
26.3%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:149.32→176.35(+18.1%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG-2.0pp(2 ↓)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
assumptions-unchangedpost-earnings-confirmationai-boom-sustained
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NVDA moved from $172.49 to $176.35 (+2.2%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 27.4% → 28.5%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $172.49 | $176.35 | +2.2% |
| Median WACC | 11.00% | 11.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 25.0% | 22.0% | -3.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 27.4% | 28.5% | +1.11 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 287.97 → Cal. 293.32
Key Drivers
- Data center accelerated computing and networking remain the central growth en…
- Historical three-year revenue CAGR of roughly 100% is expected to moderate to…
- Operating leverage from scale, software attach, networking, and mixed shift t…
Top Risk
- AI infrastructure spending is cyclical; a digestion period after a sharp data-center ca…
- Revenue concentration among large cloud and AI buyers could create volatility if deploy…
- Geopolitical and export-control restrictions, especially around China, may constrain ad…
Delta
No change
unchangedpost-earnings
DCF 184.45 → Cal. 220.85
Key Drivers
- Data center AI infrastructure demand remains primary growth driver
- Compute & Networking segment revenue scaling rapidly from 2023-2026 base
- Sustained high EBIT margins supported by scale and product mix
Top Risk
- Extreme beta of 2.215 indicates high volatility and market sensitivity
- Potential cyclical slowdown in AI capex spending by hyperscalers
- Regulatory and geopolitical exposure in China/Taiwan markets
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
MARG-2.0pp
cagr downmargin down
DCF 176.35 → Cal. 215.18
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~100% (FY2023–FY2026: $27B to $216B) driven by exp…
- Law of large numbers forces meaningful moderation from the historical 100% CA…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 43.0% (per derived_ratios) reflects the current perio…
Top Risk
- Hyperscaler customers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are developing custom AI ASICs …
- Geopolitical risk: US export controls on advanced chips to China and Hong Kong ('China …
- Cyclicality: semiconductor markets are historically prone to inventory corrections; the…
Delta
No change
assumptions-unchangedpost-earnings-confirmationai-boom-sustained
DCF 176.35 → Cal. 215.18
Key Drivers
- Unparalleled leadership in data center scale AI infrastructure and accelerate…
- Strong secular tailwinds from global AI infrastructure buildout and enterpris…
- High operating leverage and premium pricing power, supported by the proprieta…
Top Risk
- Potential cyclicality and demand digestion phases in the semiconductor and AI hardware …
- Geopolitical tensions and export controls affecting key international markets, particul…
- Intense competition from hyperscalers developing custom ASICs and traditional chip desi…
Delta
No change
stable outlookmomentum
GPT →ADJ
DCF 122.32 → Cal. 177.36
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is already very high, so the steady-state target stays b…
- Historical revenue growth has been extraordinary; a 5-year forecast should no…
- Data-center AI, networking, and software attach support above-average growth …
Top Risk
- Semiconductor demand can remain cyclical despite secular AI tailwinds.
- Customer spending on AI infrastructure can be lumpy, creating revenue timing volatility.
- Competitive pressure in accelerated computing and networking could limit margin durabil…
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG-7.0pp
WACC+0.5pp
fresh viewhigh growthhigh margin
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 22.0% | 30.0% | 22.0% | 12.0% +1.0pp | 24.0% -1.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% -7.0pp | 46.0% -2.0pp |
| WACC | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.5% +0.5pp | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 4.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 22.0% | 23.4% | +1.4pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.7pp |
| WACC | 11.0% | 10.4% | -0.6pp |
Based on spot price $227.98 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin43.0%
EBITDA Margin66.4%
ROE122.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.1x
P/E Trailing28.5x
EV / EBITDA27.2x
P/B28.3x
Analyst Range180.00 – 500.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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