71.45 EUR
52-Week Range
56.50 €
75.30 €
5 AI models estimate ORNBV median target 100.13 € (+40.1% vs spot 71.45 €, model agreement 0.83). Analyst consensus 74.17 € (6 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
100.13 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+40.1%
Agreement
0.835/5 models
Raw 0.79
Dispersion
σ 0.07
Analyst consensus
74.17 €(6 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on ORNBV. Key driver: Strong performance and strategic focus on oncology, as highlighted by recent ... AI consensus estimate 100.13 40.1% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.83). Analyst consensus: 74.17 (AI +35.0%).Bear Case (min)
92.00 €
28.8%
Base Case (median)
100.13 €
+40.1%
Bull Case (max)
111.25 €
55.7%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:88.79→100.13(+12.8%)
CAGR+0.4pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
WACC-0.1pp(1 ↓)
no-change×2stable-assumptionsconfirmation
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE →ADJ
DCF 111.25 → Cal. 100.13
Key Drivers
- Nubeqa (darolutamide) oncology royalty franchise remains the primary near-ter…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (EUR 1,340M to EUR 1,889M, 2022–2025) anchor…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 32.2% is already at specialty-pharma premium levels; …
Top Risk
- Nubeqa royalty revenue is dependent on Bayer's commercial execution and competitive dyn…
- Patent expiration risk on legacy products (Parkinson's franchise: Entacapone, Stalevo; …
- EUR/USD and EUR/SEK currency exposure given significant international sales; Finnish ex…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsconfirmation
GEMINI →ADJ
DCF 111.25 → Cal. 100.13
Key Drivers
- Strong performance and strategic focus on oncology, as highlighted by recent …
- Robust growth in key pharmaceutical products, including Nubeqa for prostate c…
- High and sustainable EBIT margins, indicative of a strong proprietary product…
Top Risk
- Potential for patent expirations impacting revenue streams for key drugs in the long term.
- Intense competition in the pharmaceutical market, particularly from generic manufacturers.
- R&D pipeline success is critical for sustained long-term growth and new product introdu…
Delta
No previous data
no comparison
GPT →ADJ
DCF 111.25 → Cal. 100.13
Key Drivers
- Strong pipeline of innovative drugs and treatments
- Continued expansion into international markets
- Stable market demand for veterinary pharmaceuticals
Top Risk
- Potential impact of patent expirations on key proprietary products
- Regulatory challenges in new market entries
- Competition affecting pricing power in core segments
Delta
CAGR+0.4pp
assumption changegrowth outlook
DCF 93.63 → Cal. 87.79
Key Drivers
- Nubeqa oncology franchise driving near-term revenue
- Sustained high 32%+ EBIT margins from specialty mix
- Low beta 0.27 supports defensive WACC
Top Risk
- Upcoming patent expirations on key molecules
- Generic competition pressure on older portfolio
- R&D spend intensity remains elevated
Delta
CAGR-0.5pp
WACC-0.1pp
growth moderationwacc calibration
DCF 92.00 → Cal. 86.65
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (2022-2025) driven by Nubeqa and Easy…
- Oncology pivot with Nubeqa for prostate cancer providing growth tailwind
- Record 2025 results and strategic board changes signal focus on profitability
Top Risk
- Patent expirations on key products (e.g., Entacapone, Stalevo) could pressure revenue
- High reliance on Nubeqa growth; competition or regulatory changes could impact
- Currency exposure from international operations (EUR vs USD, SEK)
Delta
No change
stableno-change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 9.0% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 9.6% +0.4pp | 6.5% -0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 32.0% | 33.0% | 36.0% | 33.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% -0.1pp |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 9.0% | 2.3% | -6.7pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 21.3% | -11.7pp |
| WACC | 8.2% | 11.2% | +3.0pp |
Based on spot price 71.45 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin32.2%
EBITDA Margin36.9%
ROE41.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.2x
P/E Trailing19.0x
EV / EBITDA14.1x
P/B9.0x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-22
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