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AI model estimates for Procter & Gamble Co. vs spot price
2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer
143.14 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$137.62
$167.25
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate PG median target $120.13 (-16.1% vs spot $143.14, model agreement 0.85). Analyst consensus $160.61 (23 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$120.13
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-16.1%
Agreement
0.855/5 models
Raw 0.85
Dispersion
σ 5.9%
Analyst consensus
$160.61(23 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$132.28
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on PG. Key concern: Intense competition from private label alternatives as consumers face persist... AI consensus estimate 120.13 16.1% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.85). Analyst consensus: 160.61 (AI -25.2%).Bear Case (min)
$120.13
-16.1%
Base Case (median)
$120.13
-16.1%
Bull Case (max)
$135.38
-5.4%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:119.92→120.13(+0.2%)
consumer staples×2defensive×2no-change
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for PG moved from $120.94 to $120.13 (-0.7%); median WACC 7.8% → 8.0% (+0.25 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 6.3% → 5.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $120.94 | $120.13 | -0.7% |
| Median WACC | 7.75% | 8.00% | +0.25 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 23.0% | 23.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 6.3% | 5.9% | -0.38 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 135.38 → Cal. 142.95
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~2% (2023–2026, $82.0B→$87.0B) reflects a mature, …
- Trailing EBIT margin of 22.7% is already at the high end of the consumer stap…
- Beta of 0.38 is well outside the CAPM-usable range (0.6–1.4), so WACC is anch…
Top Risk
- Volume elasticity risk: sustained price increases in recent years may have pulled forwa…
- Currency headwinds: significant international revenue exposure creates FX translation r…
- Private label competition intensifying as consumers trade down in a higher-cost-of-livi…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DCF 135.38 → Cal. 142.95
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin of 22.7% supports a high-quality consumer staples margin…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 2.0% suggests modest but durable growth, consisten…
- Global brand breadth across beauty, grooming, health care, and home care supp…
Top Risk
- Mature category mix may keep long-run revenue growth near the low end of staples peers.
- Input cost inflation or heavier promotion could pressure margins.
- Private-label and local-brand competition can limit pricing power in some categories.
Delta
No change
fresh viewconsumer staplesdefensive
DCF 120.13 → Cal. 132.28
Key Drivers
- Defensive consumer staples portfolio and broad household penetration support …
- Premium brand mix and ongoing innovation provide pricing power and help susta…
- Very low equity beta and stable cash generation support a below-average WACC …
Top Risk
- Foreign-exchange translation can reduce reported revenue and earnings growth despite st…
- Commodity and packaging cost inflation could pressure margins if pricing actions lag co…
- Private-label competition and promotional activity may limit volume growth and pricing …
Delta
No change
roll-forwardno-assumption-change
DCF 120.13 → Cal. 132.28
Key Drivers
- Strong brand equity and pricing power across core consumer segments supportin…
- Productivity and cost-saving programs supporting premium EBIT margins above t…
- Consistent organic growth driven by premiumization and steady expansion in em…
Top Risk
- Intense competition from private label alternatives as consumers face persistent econom…
- Foreign exchange headwinds due to a significant global operational footprint
- Commodity and raw material cost volatility impacting gross margins
Delta
No change
stable outlookconsumer staplesdefensive
DCF 120.13 → Cal. 132.28
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin 22.7% anchors high steady-state target
- Historical revenue CAGR 2.0% with defensive staples characteristics
- Low beta 0.377 supports below-sector WACC
Top Risk
- Limited volume growth in mature markets
- Input cost and currency volatility exposure
- Intense competition across all five segments
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 23.5% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.5% | 23.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 6.8% | +3.8pp |
| WACC | 8.0% | 6.6% | -1.4pp |
Based on spot price $143.14 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin22.7%
EBITDA Margin28.4%
ROE29.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.0x
P/E Trailing21.1x
EV / EBITDA14.5x
P/B6.2x
Analyst Range143.00 – 186.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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