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AI model estimates for
Procter & Gamble Co. vs spot price

2026-07-10🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer
146.85 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$137.62
$167.25

As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate PG median target $134.31 (-8.5% vs spot $146.85, model agreement 0.85). Analyst consensus $163.30 (23 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$134.31
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-8.5%
Agreement
0.855/5 models
Raw 0.78
Dispersion
σ 6.0%
Analyst consensus
$163.30(23 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on PG. Key concern: Intense competition in the global consumer packaged goods market. AI consensus estimate 134.31 8.5% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.85). Analyst consensus: 163.30 (AI -17.8%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokPGProcter & G…146.8spot163.3analysts121130140149158168
Bear Case (min)
$108.98
-25.8%
Base Case (median)
$134.31
-8.5%
Bull Case (max)
$139.83
-4.8%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:134.35→134.31(-0.0%)
stable×2no-changestable-assumptions

What Changed (7 days)

Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for PG moved from $134.38 to $134.31 (-0.1%); median WACC 8.0% → 8.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 5.8% → 6.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.

Metric7d ago (2026-07-03)Now (2026-07-10)Change
AI consensus estimate$134.38$134.31-0.1%
Median WACC8.00%8.00%+0.00 pp
Median terminal growth2.00%2.00%+0.00 pp
Median revenue CAGR (5y)4.0%4.0%+0.00 pp
Median EBIT margin target24.0%24.0%+0.00 pp
Model dispersion σ5.8%6.0%+0.12 pp

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →
Est.
146.87
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.73
DCF 139.83 → Cal. 146.87
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 1.7% (2022-2025) reflects a post-pricing-cycle nor…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.6% is already above the consumer staples sector av…
  • Beta of 0.38 is well below the CAPM-usable threshold of 0.6; WACC set at sect…
Top Risk
  • Foreign exchange headwinds are a persistent risk given approximately 55% of revenues ge…
  • Volume elasticity risk: if consumers trade down to private label amid prolonged cost-of…
  • Commodity cost volatility (resins, pulp, surfactants, energy) could compress gross marg…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model (2026-07-09). No new material primary-sour…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
GEMINI →
Est.
142.83
Gap
-2.7%
Conf
0.75
DCF 134.06 → Cal. 142.83
Key Drivers
  • Strong portfolio of established consumer brands providing stable revenue stre…
  • Resilient demand for consumer staples, offering defensive characteristics in …
  • Consistent product innovation and market presence supporting market leadership.
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in the global consumer packaged goods market.
  • Exposure to fluctuations in raw material costs, impacting profitability.
  • Currency exchange rate volatility due to significant international operations.
Delta
All core valuation assumptions remain consistent with the previous day, reflecting a stable outlook for the company's…
No change
no change
GPT →
Est.
134.31
Gap
-8.5%
Conf
0.60
DCF 121.88 → Cal. 134.31
Key Drivers
  • Strong brand recognition driving pricing power
  • Investment in innovation for new products
  • Resilience in consumer spending during economic fluctuations
Top Risk
  • Economic downturn affecting consumer spending
  • Fluctuations in raw material costs
  • Increasing regulatory scrutiny in consumer goods
Delta
Valuation assumptions remain stable with no significant changes since the last model.
No previous data
stableunchanged
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
129.28
Gap
-12.0%
Conf
0.70
DCF 114.69 → Cal. 129.28
Key Drivers
  • Strong brand portfolio across multiple consumer categories provides pricing p…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 1.7% reflects mature markets; future growth driven…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.6% is above consumer staples average, supported by…
Top Risk
  • Commodity cost inflation could pressure margins if pricing power wanes
  • Currency headwinds from global operations may impact reported revenue
  • Intense competition from private labels and other consumer giants
Delta
No material change in assumptions; same inputs used as previous model.
No change
stableno change
GROK →
Est.
125.28
Gap
-14.7%
Conf
0.60
DCF 108.98 → Cal. 125.28
Key Drivers
  • Strong global brand portfolio supports premium pricing power
  • Defensive consumer staples category with resilient demand
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 1.7% provides conservative base
Top Risk
  • Intense competition from private labels and peers
  • Currency translation and emerging market volatility
  • Regulatory and raw material cost pressures
Delta
No material change in assumptions from prior day.
No change
no change

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y4.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%3.5%
EBIT Margin Target24.5%24.0%23.5%24.0%23.0%
WACC7.5%8.0%7.5%8.5%8.3%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)4.0%6.2%+2.2pp
WACC8.0%7.2%-0.8pp
Based on spot price $146.85 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin23.6%
EBITDA Margin28.9%
ROE31.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.0x
P/E Trailing20.9x
EV / EBITDA14.6x
P/B6.4x
Analyst Range145.00 – 186.00
The Procter & Gamble Company provides branded consumer packaged goods worldwide. It operates through Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine & Family Care segments. The company offers conditioners, shampoos, styling aids, and treatments under the Head & Shoulders, Herbal Essences, Pantene, and Rejoice brands; antiperspirants, deodorants, and personal cleansing products under the Native, Old Spice, Safeguard, and Secret brands; and facial moisturizers, cleaners, and treatments under the Olay and SK-II brands. It also provides blades, razors, shave products, appliances, and other grooming products under the Braun, Gillette, and Venus brands. In addition, the company offers toothbrushes, toothpastes, and other oral care products under the Crest and Oral-B brands; and gastrointestinal, pain relief, rapid diagnostics, respiratory, vitamins/minerals/supplements, and other personal health care products under the Metamucil, Neurobion, Pepto-Bismol, and Vicks brands. Further, it provides fabric enhancers, and laundry additives and detergents under the Ariel, Downy, Gain, and Tide brands; and air and dish care, P&G professional, and surface care under the Cascad
Source: Yahoo Finance

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