As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate SAMPO median target 6.82 € (-24.2% vs spot 9.01 €, model agreement 0.81). Analyst consensus 10.53 € (16 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
6.82 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-24.2%
Agreement
0.815/5 models
Raw 0.81
Dispersion
σ 7.9%
Analyst consensus
10.53 €(16 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
7.93 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on SAMPO.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:6.82→6.82(+0.0%)
stable×2no-changestable-assumptions
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for SAMPO moved from 6.82 € to 6.82 € (+0.0%); median WACC 10.5% → 10.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 7.9% → 7.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Trailing EBIT margin is 23.0%, so a modestly higher steady-state target assum…
Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% from 2022 to 2025 is strong, but a 4.5% forw…
Very low beta of 0.266 supports a lower-end equity discount rate, while 9.0% …
Top Risk
Claims inflation or adverse reserve development could pressure underwriting profitability.
Growth may normalize from the strong 2022-2025 revenue expansion.
Investment returns and capital allocation can materially affect insurer earnings.
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged versus yesterday. The model remains anchored to strong historical profitability, solid bala…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
6.0%
3.5%
5.5%
4.5%
6.0%
ROE Target
18.0%
18.0%
19.0%
18.0%
18.0%
WACC
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
9.0%
11.5%
Terminal Growth
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin23.0%
EBITDA Margin22.3%
ROE21.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA-6.4x
P/E Trailing13.9x
EV / EBITDA3.3x
P/B3.2x
Analyst Range9.30 – 11.50
Sampo Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Spain, Gibraltar, Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through Private Nordic, Private UK, Nordic Commercial, and Nordic Industrial segments. It offers property, casualty, liability, accident, sickness, household, homeowner, motor, travel, marine, aviation, transport, forest, livestock, health, workers compensation, car, van, and bike insurance, as well as reinsurance products under the If, Topdanmark, and Hastings brand names. Sampo Oyj was founded in 1909 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Persistent claims inflation in motor repairs and property replacement costs
AI consensus estimate 6.82 24.2% below the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.81).
Analyst consensus: 10.53 (AI -35.2%).
Bear Case (min)
6.22 €
-30.9%
Base Case (median)
6.82 €
-24.2%
Bull Case (max)
7.77 €
-13.7%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)