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AI model estimates for
Sampo Oyj vs spot price

2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHfinancials
9.28 EUR
52-Week Range
8.64 €
10.39 €

5 AI models estimate SAMPO median target 7.54 € (-18.7% vs spot 9.28 €, model agreement 0.91). Analyst consensus 10.47 € (14 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
7.54 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-18.7%
Agreement
0.915/5 models
Raw 0.86
Dispersion
σ 0.03
Analyst consensus
10.47 €(14 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on SAMPO. Key concern: Intensified competition leading to pressure on premium rates and market share. AI consensus estimate 7.54 18.7% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.91). Analyst consensus: 10.47 (AI -28.0%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokSAMPOSampo Oyj9.3spot10.5analysts7.197.928.649.3710.110.8
Bear Case (min)
6.28 €
-32.3%
Base Case (median)
7.54 €
-18.7%
Bull Case (max)
7.18 €
-22.6%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:7.54→7.54(+0.0%)
WACC
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsstable-wacc

Model Breakdown

GEMINI →
Est.
8.17
Gap
-11.9%
Conf
0.75
DCF 7.18 → Cal. 8.17
Key Drivers
  • Continued growth in non-life insurance premiums across core Nordic and UK mar…
  • Sustained underwriting profitability through effective claims management and …
  • Performance of the investment portfolio in the prevailing interest rate envir…
Top Risk
  • Intensified competition leading to pressure on premium rates and market share.
  • Higher-than-expected claims frequency or severity due to adverse weather events or othe…
  • Adverse movements in financial markets impacting investment income and asset values.
Delta
Minor adjustment to WACC, increasing it slightly to better align with the lower end of the sector's cost of equity ra…
WACC
+0.5pp
wacc adjustedminor change
CLAUDE →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Gap
-18.7%
Conf
0.73
DCF 6.28 → Cal. 7.54
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022–2025) was driven by Hastings and Topda…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.5% is solid for a Nordic non-life insurer; steady-…
  • Very low beta (0.23) anchors cost of equity at the lower end of the Nordic fi…
Top Risk
  • Near-term revenue headwind: analyst consensus projects -7.8% revenue growth for next 12…
  • Catastrophe and weather-related claims volatility could pressure combined ratio above 9…
  • Rising reinsurance costs and hardening reinsurance market could compress underwriting m…
Delta
All core assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR (3.5%), EBIT margin target (24%), WACC (10%),…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsstable-wacc
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Gap
-18.7%
Conf
0.65
DCF 6.28 → Cal. 7.54
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022-2025) driven by acquisitions and organ…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.5% reflects strong underwriting and cost control; …
  • Low beta of 0.23 and net cash position (net debt/EBITDA -6.84) reduce financi…
Top Risk
  • Revenue contraction of -7.8% expected by analysts in 2026 could pressure margins and gr…
  • Insurance underwriting cycles and claims inflation (e.g., motor, property) may increase…
  • Regulatory changes in Nordic and UK markets could impact pricing and capital requirements.
Delta
No material changes in assumptions from yesterday's model. All key inputs remain consistent.
No previous data
no change
GPT →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Gap
-18.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 6.28 → Cal. 7.54
Key Drivers
  • Stable demand for non-life insurance products
  • Investment in new insurance technologies
  • Market expansion into new regions
Top Risk
  • Regulatory changes impacting insurance rates
  • Economic downturn affecting premium revenues
  • Increased competition in core markets
Delta
No significant changes in assumptions since the last model update.
No previous data
stabilityinsurancefinancials
GROK →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Gap
-18.7%
Conf
0.65
DCF 6.28 → Cal. 7.54
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR 10.3% (2022-2025) moderating to sustainable 4% forward
  • Trailing EBIT margin 23.5% anchors steady-state target near 22%
  • Low beta 0.23 supports WACC at lower end of Nordic financials range
Top Risk
  • Revenue growth estimate -7.8% for next year signals near-term pressure
  • Nordic insurance competition and regulatory changes could compress margins
  • Direct A-share listing introduces liquidity transition uncertainty
Delta
Assumptions stable with minor calibration to latest trailing ratios and low-beta WACC anchor.
No change
stable outlook

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y3.5%3.0%4.0%6.0%4.0%
ROE Target18.0%18.0%19.5%20.6%19.0%
WACC10.0%10.5%9.5%
+0.5pp
11.5%10.5%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin23.5%
EBITDA Margin22.2%
ROE20.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-6.8x
P/E Trailing14.8x
EV / EBITDA3.5x
P/B3.0x
Analyst Range– – –
Sampo Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Spain, Gibraltar, Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through Private Nordic, Private UK, Nordic Commercial, and Nordic Industrial segments. It offers property, casualty, liability, accident, sickness, household, homeowner, motor, travel, marine, aviation, transport, forest, livestock, health, workers compensation, car, van, and bike insurance, as well as reinsurance products under the If, Topdanmark, and Hastings brand names. Sampo Oyj was founded in 1909 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.
Source: Yahoo Finance

Recent News

Tracking How The Sampo Oyj (HLSE:SAMPO) Narrative Is Shifting With New Targets And Guidance2026-05-07
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Insider Buying At Sampo Oyj Highlights Valuation Discount And Earnings Risks2026-02-14
Assessing Sampo (HLSE:SAMPO) Valuation After Recent Mixed Share Price Performance2026-02-14
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