9.62 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
8.64 €
10.39 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate SAMPO median target 6.94 € (-27.9% vs spot 9.62 €, model agreement 0.89). Analyst consensus 10.58 € (15 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
6.94 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-27.9%
Agreement
0.895/5 models
Raw 0.82
Dispersion
σ 4.1%
Analyst consensus
10.58 €(15 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on SAMPO. Key concern: Near-term revenue contraction indicated by analyst 1-year growth estimate of ... AI consensus estimate 6.94 27.9% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.89). Analyst consensus: 10.58 (AI -34.4%).Bear Case (min)
5.11 €
-46.9%
Base Case (median)
6.94 €
-27.9%
Bull Case (max)
6.12 €
-36.4%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:6.92→6.94(+0.3%)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for SAMPO moved from 7.31 € to 6.94 € (-5.1%); median WACC 11.5% → 11.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 3.3% → 4.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 7.31 € | 6.94 € | -5.1% |
| Median WACC | 11.50% | 11.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 24.0% | 23.5% | -0.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 3.3% | 4.1% | +0.82 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 6.12 → Cal. 7.46
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth in insurance sector
- Diverse product offerings across multiple Nordic countries
- Stable demand for insurance products
Top Risk
- Economic downturn affecting insurance premiums
- Regulatory changes impacting operations
- Increased competition from insurtech firms
Delta
No previous data
stableinsurancegrowth outlook
DCF 5.95 → Cal. 7.34
Key Drivers
- Diversified non-life insurance operations across multiple European markets.
- Strong brand portfolio (If, Topdanmark, Hastings) supporting market position.
- Solid financial health with a significant net cash position (net debt to EBIT…
Top Risk
- Near-term revenue contraction indicated by analyst 1-year growth estimate of -7.8%.
- Mixed market signals and recent share price pullback impacting investor sentiment.
- Intense competition in the non-life insurance sector potentially affecting pricing and …
Delta
No change
DCF 5.38 → Cal. 6.94
Key Drivers
- Historical 3-year revenue CAGR of 10.3% driven by acquisitions (Topdanmark, H…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 23.5% supported by underwriting discipline across If,…
- Low beta of 0.24 reflects low systematic risk; WACC set at 11.5% in line with…
Top Risk
- Revenue growth may decelerate faster than expected if claims inflation persists or prem…
- Underwriting profitability could be impacted by severe weather events or large claims, …
- Regulatory changes in insurance solvency requirements (e.g., Solvency II revisions) cou…
Delta
No change
no change
DCF 5.18 → Cal. 6.80
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022–2025) reflects strong organic premium …
- Trailing EBIT margin of 23.5% is robust for a Nordic non-life insurer; steady…
- Exceptional balance sheet strength with net cash of ~EUR 16.2B (net debt-to-E…
Top Risk
- Analyst consensus projects -7.8% revenue decline in 2026, suggesting near-term premium …
- Hastings (UK) exposure introduces material GBP/EUR FX risk and UK regulatory/competitiv…
- Combined ratio sensitivity: catastrophe events, climate-related claims frequency increa…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
DCF 5.11 → Cal. 6.75
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 10.3% (2022-2025) provides base but moderated by 1y r…
- Trailing EBIT margin 23.5% supports steady-state target near 22%
- Low beta 0.24 implies lower cost of equity within financials sector
Top Risk
- Recent revenue contraction (-7.8% 1y) signals potential volume or pricing pressure
- Regulatory and competitive dynamics in Nordic/UK insurance markets
- Low beta may understate sector-specific insurance risks
Delta
WACC+0.5pp
minor-adjustment
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| ROE Target | 18.0% | 18.0% | 19.0% | 20.6% | 17.0% |
| WACC | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% +0.5pp |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin23.5%
EBITDA Margin22.2%
ROE20.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-6.8x
P/E Trailing15.2x
EV / EBITDA3.9x
P/B3.1x
Analyst Range9.51 – 11.50
Source: Yahoo Finance
Recent News
More in financials
Subscribe to Email UpdatesFree · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime · Privacy Policy
AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy