406.55 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$297.82
$498.83
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate TSLA median target $246.24 (-39.4% vs spot $406.55, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $424.56 (40 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$246.24
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-39.4%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Raw 1.00⚠ cap-induced
Dispersion
σ 0.0%
Analyst consensus
$424.56(40 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on TSLA. Key concern: Intensifying competition in the electric vehicle market from established auto... AI consensus estimate 246.24 39.4% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 424.56 (AI -42.0%).Bear Case (min)
$169.82
-58.2%
Base Case (median)
$246.24
-39.4%
Bull Case (max)
$169.82
-58.2%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:245.93→246.24(+0.1%)
CAGR-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no-changestable-assumptionsrobotaxi-miami-launch-noted
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for TSLA moved from $244.27 to $246.24 (+0.8%); median WACC 11.5% → 11.0% (-0.50 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 0.0% → 0.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $244.27 | $246.24 | +0.8% |
| Median WACC | 11.50% | 11.00% | -0.50 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 9.0% | 10.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 12.0% | 12.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.00 pp |
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE →ADJ
DCF 169.82 → Cal. 246.24
Key Drivers
- Analyst consensus projects 15.8% revenue growth over the next 12 months, anch…
- Miami Robotaxi launch (noted in headlines, July 2026) marks a tangible step t…
- Energy Generation and Storage segment represents a structurally higher-growth…
Top Risk
- Trailing EBIT margin of only 5.0% reflects intense EV price competition, rising costs, …
- Valuation remains extremely stretched: trailing P/E of 395x, EV/EBITDA of 135x, and P/B…
- Revenue declined from $96.8B (2023) to $94.8B (2025), indicating near-term demand chall…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsrobotaxi-miami-launch-noted
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
DCF 169.82 → Cal. 246.24
Key Drivers
- Automotive volume growth from Cybertruck ramp and next-generation vehicle pla…
- Energy Generation & Storage segment scaling rapidly, providing revenue divers…
- Ongoing cost reduction and manufacturing efficiency improvements to expand EB…
Top Risk
- Intense competition from legacy OEMs and new entrants pressuring pricing and market share
- Macroeconomic headwinds and potential demand slowdown in key markets (US, China, EU)
- High capital expenditure requirements for capacity expansion, new models, and technolog…
Delta
No previous data
no change
GEMINI →ADJ
DCF 169.82 → Cal. 246.24
Key Drivers
- Continued global adoption of electric vehicles and expansion into new markets…
- Growth in energy generation and storage solutions, leveraging advanced batter…
- Development and monetization of autonomous driving technology and software se…
Top Risk
- Intensifying competition in the electric vehicle market from established automakers and…
- Regulatory hurdles and public acceptance challenges for autonomous driving technology d…
- Volatility in raw material costs and potential supply chain disruptions for batteries a…
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
revenue cagr 5y adjusted
GPT →ADJ
DCF 169.82 → Cal. 246.24
Key Drivers
- Growing demand for electric vehicles
- Expansion into energy generation and storage markets
- Investment in autonomous driving technology
Top Risk
- Increased competition in the electric vehicle sector
- Volatility in material costs
- Regulatory changes impacting EV incentives
Delta
No change
valuationassumptions
GROK →ADJ
DCF 169.82 → Cal. 246.24
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 5.2% (2022-2025) provides baseline; 1y analyst est 15…
- Trailing EBIT margin 5.0% with EBITDA margin 11.3%; target assumes scale effi…
- Net cash position (net debt/EBITDA -2.6) supports reinvestment without levera…
Top Risk
- Revenue growth decelerating in recent years with 2025 revenue below 2024 peak
- Low current ROE 4.7% signals limited near-term capital efficiency
- High valuation multiples (trailing P/E 383.2, EV/EBITDA 130.8) leave little margin for …
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 15.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% -1.0pp | 10.0% | 8.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% |
| WACC | 13.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin5.0%
EBITDA Margin11.3%
ROE4.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-2.6x
P/E Trailing395.4x
EV / EBITDA135.0x
P/B18.6x
Analyst Range125.00 – 600.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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