360.59 USD
52-Week Range
$214.25
$498.83
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$316.22
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-12.3%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$418.83(41 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on TSLA. Key concern: Potential weakening demand for electric vehicles amid macroeconomic challenge... AI consensus estimate 316.22 12.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 418.83 (AI -24.5%).Bear Case (min)
$272.24
-24.5%
Base Case (median)
$316.22
-12.3%
Bull Case (max)
$272.24
-24.5%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Loading...
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:316.22→316.22(+0.0%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG-1.0pp(1 ↓)
WACC+0.3pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-held-steadyq1-delivery-miss-confirms-near-term-headwind
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE⚖
DCF 272.24 → Cal. 316.22
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~5.2% (2022-2025) understates forward potential; e…
- Q1 2026 deliveries missed estimates per Yahoo Finance (2026-03-31), confirmin…
- Energy Generation & Storage segment growing rapidly with higher-margin Megapa…
Top Risk
- Q1 2026 deliveries missed estimates in a challenging EV landscape (Yahoo Finance, 2026-…
- Near-term revenue growth negative (-3.1% consensus 1Y) and EPS growth deeply negative (…
- Intensifying EV competition from BYD and other Chinese OEMs in Europe and globally comp…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-held-steadyq1-delivery-miss-confirms-near-term-headwind
DEEPSEEK⚖
DCF 272.24 → Cal. 316.22
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR (2022-2025) of 5.2% provides baseline, but future gro…
- Target EBIT margin of 10% reflects potential improvement from trailing 5.1% t…
- Technology sector WACC range (9.5-12%) adjusted upward for high beta (1.93) a…
Top Risk
- High market volatility and beta (1.93) indicate significant sensitivity to broader mark…
- Intense competition in EV space with new entrants and established automakers increasing…
- Recent quarterly delivery misses suggest near-term execution challenges and demand unce…
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
MARG-1.0pp
WACC+0.3pp
reduced growthstable marginswacc adjustment
GEMINI⚖
DCF 272.24 → Cal. 316.22
Key Drivers
- Successful execution and scaling of new vehicle platforms (e.g., Cybertruck, …
- Expansion and monetization of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and potential …
- Continued growth and margin expansion within the Energy Generation and Storag…
Top Risk
- Intensifying competition from established automakers and new EV players globally, leadi…
- Regulatory changes, safety concerns, or geopolitical tensions impacting production or s…
- Supply chain disruptions and volatility in raw material prices, particularly for batter…
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
Revenue CAGR Adjustment
GPT⚖
DCF 272.24 → Cal. 316.22
Key Drivers
- Expansion of electric vehicle market.
- New products like the Semi and Cybertruck.
- Investment in energy generation and storage systems.
Top Risk
- Intense competition from traditional automakers and new entrants.
- Supply chain disruptions affecting production.
- Regulatory changes impacting electric vehicle incentives.
Delta
No previous data
stableno change
GROK⚖
DCF 272.24 → Cal. 316.22
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 5.2% adjusted to 8% due to expected growth in elec…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 5.1% increased to 7% target, reflecting potential mar…
- WACC set at 10.5% based on high beta of 1.93 and technology sector midpoint, …
Top Risk
- Potential weakening demand for electric vehicles amid macroeconomic challenges or consu…
- Intensifying competition from other EV manufacturers like BYD and Rivian in key markets.
- High capex (9% of revenue) may pressure cash flows if growth targets are not achieved.
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsminor update
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 11.0% | 6.0% -1.0pp | 4.5% +1.0pp | 5.0% | 8.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 10.0% -1.0pp | 8.0% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| WACC | 11.5% | 11.8% +0.3pp | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin5.1%
EBITDA Margin11.1%
ROE4.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-2.8x
P/E Trailing356.6x
EV / EBITDA126.0x
P/B16.5x
Analyst Range– – –
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