As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate TSLA median target $159.13 (-56.1% vs spot $362.44, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $397.83 (38 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$159.13
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-56.1%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Raw 1.00⚠ cap-induced
Dispersion
σ 0.0%
Analyst consensus
$397.83(38 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$230.74
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for TSLA moved from $156.97 to $159.13 (+1.4%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 0.0% → 0.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
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Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
18.0%
10.0%
13.0%
9.0%
+1.0pp
12.0%
EBIT Margin Target
12.0%
10.0%
14.0%
8.0%
15.0%
WACC
12.8%
11.0%
11.0%
12.0%
10.8%
Terminal Growth
3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
12.0%
38.9%
+26.9pp
Based on spot price $362.44 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin4.7%
EBITDA Margin10.4%
ROE4.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-2.5x
P/E Trailing376.1x
EV / EBITDA130.5x
P/B16.5x
Analyst Range128.11 – 600.00
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services a
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on TSLA.
Key concern: Continued pricing pressure and discounting in global EV markets weighing on s...
AI consensus estimate 159.13 56.1% below the current price.
Model agreement is high (1.00).
Analyst consensus: 397.83 (AI -60.0%).
Bear Case (min)
$159.13
-56.1%
Base Case (median)
$159.13
-56.1%
Bull Case (max)
$159.13
-56.1%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
0.0%
0.0%
+0.00 pp
Delta
Core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday. No new material primary-source data has emerged to alter the…