24.31 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
21.72 €
27.94 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate UPM median target 19.28 € (-20.7% vs spot 24.31 €, model agreement 0.77). Analyst consensus 24.70 € (15 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
19.28 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-20.7%
Agreement
0.775/5 models
Raw 0.77
Dispersion
σ 10.0%
Analyst consensus
24.70 €(15 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
20.91 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on UPM. Key concern: High cyclicality of pulp, paper, and timber market prices AI consensus estimate 19.28 20.7% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.77). Analyst consensus: 24.70 (AI -21.9%).Bear Case (min)
16.15 €
-33.6%
Base Case (median)
19.28 €
-20.7%
Bull Case (max)
21.97 €
-9.6%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:19.28→19.28(+0.0%)
no-change×3stable-assumptionsday-5-confirmation
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for UPM moved from 19.38 € to 19.28 € (-0.5%); median WACC 9.0% → 9.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 9.7% → 10.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 19.38 € | 19.28 € | -0.5% |
| Median WACC | 9.00% | 9.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 10.0% | 10.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 9.7% | 10.0% | +0.34 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 21.97 → Cal. 22.79
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.3% (2022-2025) reflects post-2022 pulp/paper pr…
- H1 2026 earnings call highlighted strong EBIT growth, confirming margin recov…
- UPM Fibres Paso de los Toros mill adds significant low-cost eucalyptus pulp c…
Top Risk
- Structural decline in UPM Communication Papers (graphic/newsprint) represents a persist…
- Elevated net debt/EBITDA of 2.71x limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivit…
- Commodity price exposure across pulp, energy, and timber creates earnings volatility; a…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-5-confirmation
DCF 20.28 → Cal. 21.61
Key Drivers
- Biofuels turnaround and strategic expansion into renewable biochemicals and w…
- Expected volume recovery in pulp and graphic paper demand following destockin…
- Normalization of capital expenditures after major investment phases in South …
Top Risk
- High cyclicality of pulp, paper, and timber market prices
- Elevated wood fiber and energy input costs in European operations
- Regulatory and environmental policy changes regarding forestry and land use in the EU
Delta
No change
no-changematerialscyclical
DCF 19.28 → Cal. 20.91
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin of 7.9% suggests a mid-cycle materials profile, so the s…
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.3% likely reflects cyclical pricing and mix eff…
- The business mix across fibres, energy, adhesives, plywood, and bio-based pro…
Top Risk
- Commodity and energy price swings can move revenue and margins materially.
- Structural weakness in graphic papers may continue to offset growth in newer segments.
- Capital intensity and maintenance spending can limit sustained margin expansion.
Delta
No change
unchangedconservativematerials-cycle
DCF 18.53 → Cal. 20.38
Key Drivers
- Pulp and specialty papers volume recovery post-cycle
- Biofuels and renewable products ramp contributing to mix shift
- Energy segment stability from hydro/nuclear assets
Top Risk
- Commodity pulp and paper price volatility
- High net debt to EBITDA at 2.71x limits flexibility
- Structural decline in communication papers segment
Delta
No previous data
stableno delta
DCF 16.15 → Cal. 18.72
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue decline largely reflects commodity and energy price normal…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 7.9% is below a normalised materials mid-cycle level;…
- WACC of 9.5% is positioned above the sector midpoint to reflect cyclical pulp…
Top Risk
- Pulp, energy, and biofuel prices are cyclical and can cause revenue and EBIT margin vol…
- Net debt/EBITDA of 2.71 and ongoing capital investment in renewable fuels and biochemic…
- Structural decline in communication papers could persist and erode volumes and fixed-co…
Delta
No change
no-changesame-assumptions
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% |
| WACC | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 5.9% | +3.9pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 14.3% | +4.3pp |
| WACC | 9.0% | 7.3% | -1.7pp |
Based on spot price 24.31 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin7.9%
EBITDA Margin13.2%
ROE6.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.7x
P/E Trailing20.5x
EV / EBITDA12.9x
P/B1.3x
Analyst Range17.40 – 30.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
Recent News
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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