As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate UPM median target 19.38 € (-22.4% vs spot 24.97 €, model agreement 0.81). Analyst consensus 25.58 € (14 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
19.38 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-22.4%
Agreement
0.815/5 models
Raw 0.81
Dispersion
σ 8.0%
Analyst consensus
25.58 €(14 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
21.24 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on UPM.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:19.39→19.38(-0.1%)
CAGR+0.2pp(1 ↑)
MARG-0.5pp(1 ↓)
stable assumptionsdate rollpre q3 earnings
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for UPM moved from 20.28 € to 19.38 € (-4.5%); median WACC 9.0% → 9.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 7.5% → 8.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday. No new material primary-source data points have emerged since the H1 2026 e…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
1.2%
+0.2pp
2.0%
EBIT Margin Target
11.5%
10.0%
10.0%
8.5%
-0.5pp
10.0%
WACC
8.8%
9.3%
9.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Terminal Growth
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
2.0%
6.2%
+4.2pp
EBIT Margin Target
10.0%
14.8%
+4.7pp
WACC
9.0%
7.2%
-1.8pp
Based on spot price 24.97 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin7.9%
EBITDA Margin13.2%
ROE6.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.7x
P/E Trailing21.1x
EV / EBITDA13.2x
P/B1.3x
Analyst Range20.10 – 30.00
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides plywood and veneer products for construction, vehicle flooring, liquefied natural gas shipbuilding, parquet manufacturing, and other industrial applications; wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacin
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Cyclical volatility in global market pulp prices and demand
AI consensus estimate 19.38 22.4% below the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.81).
Analyst consensus: 25.58 (AI -24.3%).
Bear Case (min)
18.53 €
-25.8%
Base Case (median)
19.38 €
-22.4%
Bull Case (max)
22.91 €
-8.3%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)