22.85 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
21.72 €
27.94 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate UPM median target 20.29 € (-11.2% vs spot 22.85 €, model agreement 0.74). Analyst consensus 25.84 € (15 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
20.29 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-11.2%
Agreement
0.745/5 models
Raw 0.64
Dispersion
σ 11.7%
Analyst consensus
25.84 €(15 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on UPM. Key concern: Structural secular decline in graphic/communication paper demand continues to... AI consensus estimate 20.29 11.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.74). Analyst consensus: 25.84 (AI -21.5%).Bear Case (min)
15.60 €
-31.7%
Base Case (median)
20.29 €
-11.2%
Bull Case (max)
25.35 €
11.0%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:20.29→20.29(+0.0%)
no assumption changestable modelearnings catalyst imminent
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for UPM moved from 20.33 € to 20.29 € (-0.2%); median WACC 9.0% → 9.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.1% → 11.7%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 20.33 € | 20.29 € | -0.2% |
| Median WACC | 9.00% | 9.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 10.0% | 10.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 10.1% | 11.7% | +1.63 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 25.35 → Cal. 25.50
Key Drivers
- Focus on sustainability and renewable materials
- Expansion in the biofuels sector
- Diversifying product offerings in packaging and specialty papers
Top Risk
- High exposure to commodity price fluctuations
- Potential regulatory changes affecting bioindustry
- Fluctuating demand due to economic conditions
Delta
No change
valuationassumptions
DCF 17.97 → Cal. 20.34
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.3% (2022-2025) is heavily distorted by post-pan…
- UPM Paso de los Toros pulp mill in Uruguay continues to ramp up through 2026-…
- Analyst consensus 1Y EPS growth of +43.7% and forward P/E of 11.5x vs trailin…
Top Risk
- Structural secular decline in graphic/communication paper demand continues to erode UPM…
- High net debt/EBITDA of 2.67x limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to…
- Pulp prices are highly cyclical; new global capacity additions (including UPM's own Uru…
Delta
No change
no assumption changestable modelearnings catalyst imminent
DCF 17.92 → Cal. 20.29
Key Drivers
- Biofuels turnaround and cash-flow-backed dividend signal improving operationa…
- Investment in renewable diesel and biochemicals positions UPM for long-term g…
- Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR 2022-2025) largely reflects commodity …
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in pulp, paper, and energy markets can significantly impact …
- High net debt to EBITDA (2.67) increases financial risk and limits flexibility.
- Execution risk in biofuels and biochemicals ramp-up; delays or cost overruns could impa…
Delta
No previous data
unchanged
DCF 16.27 → Cal. 19.14
Key Drivers
- Pulp/specialty papers volume stabilization
- Biofuels segment ramp-up
- Energy operations contribution
Top Risk
- Pulp and paper commodity price swings
- Cyclical end-market demand
- Elevated net debt/EBITDA at 2.67
Delta
No change
stableno delta
DCF 15.60 → Cal. 18.68
Key Drivers
- Diversified portfolio across forest-based bioindustry segments (fibres, energ…
- Strategic focus on higher-value bio-products and renewable solutions, includi…
- Exposure to cyclical commodity markets, influencing revenue and profitability.
Top Risk
- Volatility in global commodity prices (pulp, timber, energy) directly impacting revenue…
- Economic slowdowns affecting demand for paper, packaging, and construction materials.
- Intense competition across various product segments, particularly in mature markets.
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 9.0% |
| WACC | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 4.8% | +2.8pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 13.1% | +3.1pp |
| WACC | 9.0% | 7.7% | -1.3pp |
Based on spot price 22.85 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin8.0%
EBITDA Margin12.1%
ROE5.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.7x
P/E Trailing22.4x
EV / EBITDA13.2x
P/B1.2x
Analyst Range19.40 – 32.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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