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AI model estimates for ExxonMobil Corporation vs spot price
2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Penergy
156.67 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$108.35
$176.41
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate XOM median target $104.71 (-33.2% vs spot $156.67, model agreement 0.77). Analyst consensus $169.68 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$104.71
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-33.2%
Agreement
0.775/5 models
Raw 0.77
Dispersion
σ 10.2%
Analyst consensus
$169.68(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$124.20
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on XOM. Key concern: Volatility in global crude oil and natural gas prices. AI consensus estimate 104.71 33.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.77). Analyst consensus: 169.68 (AI -38.3%).Bear Case (min)
$90.79
-42.1%
Base Case (median)
$104.71
-33.2%
Bull Case (max)
$123.51
-21.2%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:104.71→104.71(+0.0%)
unchanged×2assumption-stablemozambique-lng-risk-added
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for XOM moved from $109.42 to $104.71 (-4.3%); median WACC 9.5% → 9.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 13.0% → 10.2%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $109.42 | $104.71 | -4.3% |
| Median WACC | 9.50% | 9.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 11.5% | 11.0% | -0.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 13.0% | 10.2% | -2.82 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 123.51 → Cal. 137.36
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin of 9.4% suggests a mature integrated energy profile with…
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% is likely cycle-distorted for an energy prod…
- Low net debt to EBITDA of 0.47 supports a relatively conservative capital str…
Top Risk
- Oil and gas price volatility can materially affect revenue and margins.
- Integrated refining and chemicals spreads can compress quickly in weaker product markets.
- Capital intensity remains elevated, which can limit free cash flow conversion in softer…
Delta
No change
unchangedenergy-cycleconservative-growth
DCF 110.01 → Cal. 127.91
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% is entirely commodity-cycle-driven (post-202…
- Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition integration continues to ramp Permian p…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 9.4% reflects mid-cycle conditions; target of 12% rep…
Top Risk
- Sustained decline in crude oil and natural gas prices below $65/bbl would compress both…
- Mozambique LNG project execution risk — per current headline, XOM stock could trade at …
- Energy transition acceleration could structurally reduce long-term demand for fossil fu…
Delta
No change
assumption-stablemozambique-lng-risk-addedpermian-growth-intact
DCF 104.71 → Cal. 124.20
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% reflects post-2022 commodity price normaliza…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 9.4% is below a normalized integrated-energy mid-cycl…
- Net debt/EBITDA of 0.47 and diversified integrated cash flows support a WACC …
Top Risk
- Oil, natural gas, and refining margins remain highly cyclical; a sustained commodity-pr…
- Global energy transition policies and demand trends could accelerate structural decline…
- Long-cycle upstream, chemical, and lower-carbon projects carry execution, reservoir, re…
Delta
No change
no-changeenergyXOM
DCF 100.96 → Cal. 121.57
Key Drivers
- Volume growth in low-cost, high-margin assets including the Permian Basin and…
- Synergies and integration benefits from recent acquisitions and segment integ…
- Structural cost savings and operational efficiency programs.
Top Risk
- Volatility in global crude oil and natural gas prices.
- Regulatory and environmental policies accelerating the low-carbon transition.
- Geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains and production assets.
Delta
No change
unchangedstable outlook
DCF 90.79 → Cal. 114.45
Key Drivers
- Mature upstream volumes stable with modest LNG and Guyana growth offsets
- Normalized mid-cycle EBIT margin above trailing 9.4% due to cost discipline
- Low net debt supports resilient FCF through commodity cycles
Top Risk
- Oil and gas price volatility directly impacts realized margins
- Regulatory and carbon policy pressure on upstream assets
- Execution risk on lower-emission transition investments
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| WACC | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.5% | 10.3% | +7.8pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 11.0% | 19.4% | +8.4pp |
| WACC | 9.5% | 6.5% | -3.0pp |
Based on spot price $156.67 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin9.4%
EBITDA Margin18.8%
ROE12.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.5x
P/E Trailing19.7x
EV / EBITDA10.0x
P/B2.5x
Analyst Range142.00 – 200.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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