As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate XOM median target $114.12 (-34.7% vs spot $174.68, model agreement 0.76). Analyst consensus $174.00 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$114.12
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-34.7%
Agreement
0.765/5 models
Raw 0.76
Dispersion
σ 10.7%
Analyst consensus
$174.00(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$132.09
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on XOM.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:114.12→114.12(+0.0%)
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-stable
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for XOM moved from $114.12 to $114.12 (+0.0%); median WACC 9.5% → 9.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.7% → 10.7%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Trailing EBIT margin of 9.4% and EBITDA margin of 18.8% point to a mature int…
Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% is likely influenced by commodity price norm…
Net debt to EBITDA of 0.47 indicates modest leverage, supporting a discount r…
Top Risk
Oil and gas price volatility can quickly affect revenue and margins.
Refining and chemical spreads can compress in weaker demand or oversupply conditions.
Large project execution and capital intensity may pressure free cash flow.
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged versus yesterday. The model remains anchored to a conservative integrated-energy view, with…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
EBIT Margin Target
12.0%
11.5%
11.0%
11.0%
12.0%
WACC
9.5%
8.5%
9.5%
7.5%
10.0%
Terminal Growth
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
2.5%
11.2%
+8.7pp
EBIT Margin Target
11.5%
21.6%
+10.1pp
WACC
9.5%
6.2%
-3.3pp
Based on spot price $174.68 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin9.4%
EBITDA Margin18.8%
ROE12.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.5x
P/E Trailing21.9x
EV / EBITDA11.0x
P/B2.8x
Analyst Range142.00 – 200.00
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. Its Chemical Products segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers finished lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. It is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data center, and lithium. In addition, the company offers aviation fuel. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The company was formerly known as Exxon Mobil Corporation and changed its name t
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Commodity price volatility: oil and gas price cycles can compress EBIT margin...
AI consensus estimate 114.12 34.7% below the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.76).
Analyst consensus: 174.00 (AI -34.4%).
Bear Case (min)
$98.87
-43.4%
Base Case (median)
$114.12
-34.7%
Bull Case (max)
$132.99
-23.9%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)