160.69 USD
52-Week Range
$97.80
$176.41
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$81.55
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-49.3%
Agreement
0.845/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.06
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on XOM. Key concern: Volatility in global oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts could impact re... AI consensus estimate 81.55 49.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.84).Bear Case (min)
$77.56
-51.7%
Base Case (median)
$81.55
-49.3%
Bull Case (max)
$91.93
-42.8%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:81.55→81.55(+0.0%)
stable assumptions×2no-changestable-assumptions
Model Breakdown
GPT
Key Drivers
- Investment in lower-emission energy solutions
- Recovery in global oil demand
- Increased market share in natural gas
Top Risk
- Geopolitical instability affecting oil supply
- Economic downturn impacting energy demand
- Fluctuations in crude oil prices
Delta
No previous data
energyvaluationXOM
GROK
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue decline (-6.7% CAGR) likely due to commodity price normali…
- Forward revenue CAGR of 2% reflects modest volume growth and stabilization in…
- EBIT margin target of 12% assumes improvement from trailing 10.5% due to oper…
Top Risk
- Volatility in global oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts could impact revenue and …
- Regulatory pressures on fossil fuel production may increase costs or limit growth.
- Energy transition investments may not yield expected returns in the short term.
Delta
No change
no changestable assumptions
CLAUDE
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% is almost entirely driven by post-2022 commo…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 10.5% is slightly below mid-cycle norms; 12% target r…
- Very low beta (0.35) reflects ExxonMobil's scale, diversification, and conser…
Top Risk
- Oil price cyclicality: a sustained decline in Brent crude below $60/bbl would compress …
- Energy transition risk: long-term structural demand destruction for fossil fuels could …
- Geopolitical de-escalation (Iran deal, Middle East normalization) could remove the curr…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsspot-price-stable
DEEPSEEK
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue decline (-6.7% CAGR 2022-2025) reflects commodity price no…
- Forward growth anchored to analyst 1-year revenue estimate of -1.3%, with mod…
- Target EBIT margin of 12% reflects normalization from trailing 10.5%, conside…
Top Risk
- Commodity price cyclicality: Revenue and margins are heavily exposed to volatile oil an…
- Energy transition: Long-term demand uncertainty and regulatory pressures related to cli…
- Geopolitical instability: Middle East tensions can disrupt supply chains and create mar…
Delta
No change
stable assumptionslng startupgeopolitical risk
GEMINI
Key Drivers
- Global energy demand and commodity price stability (oil, natural gas).
- Successful execution and scaling of lower-emission business opportunities (e.…
- Operational efficiency improvements and cost management across all segments.
Top Risk
- Volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices impacting revenue and profitability.
- Increasing regulatory pressures and environmental policies on fossil fuel production.
- Execution risks and high capital intensity associated with new lower-emission technolog…
Delta
No change
No material change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| WACC | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin10.5%
EBITDA Margin18.3%
ROE11.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.7x
P/E Trailing23.2x
EV / EBITDA11.9x
P/B2.6x
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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