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AI model estimates for Amazon.com Inc. vs spot price
2026-06-17🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer⚠ Top disagreement #2
246.00 USD
52-Week Range
$196.00
$278.56
As of 2026-06-17, 5 AI models estimate AMZN median target $222.81 (-9.4% vs spot $246.00, model agreement 0.72). Analyst consensus $312.51 (63 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$222.81
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-9.4%
Agreement
0.725/5 models
Raw 0.59
Dispersion
σ 0.13
Analyst consensus
$312.51(63 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on AMZN. Key concern: Intense competition across all operating segments, including e-commerce, clou... AI consensus estimate 222.81 9.4% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.72). Analyst consensus: 312.51 (AI -28.7%).Bear Case (min)
$125.00
-49.2%
Base Case (median)
$222.81
-9.4%
Bull Case (max)
$221.42
-10.0%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:222.81→222.81(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
MARG+2.0pp(2 ↑)
WACC+1.0pp(1 ↑)
stable-waccstable-growthstable-margin
Model Breakdown
DCF 221.42 → Cal. 248.75
Key Drivers
- Continued strong growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS), particularly driven by …
- Expansion and monetization of advertising services, leveraging Amazon's vast …
- Sustained growth in the core e-commerce business through innovation, logistic…
Top Risk
- Intense competition across all operating segments, including e-commerce, cloud computin…
- Potential for increased regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions globally, impacting b…
- Sensitivity of e-commerce and advertising segments to macroeconomic downturns and shift…
Delta
MARG+2.0pp
margin expansion expected
DCF 207.80 → Cal. 239.21
Key Drivers
- Continued growth in AWS and advertising revenue
- Investments in new technologies and product offerings
- Strong brand presence and customer loyalty
Top Risk
- Regulatory scrutiny impacting business operations
- Competitive pressures in e-commerce and cloud services
- Economic downturns affecting consumer spending
Delta
No previous data
DCF 184.36 → Cal. 222.81
Key Drivers
- AWS cloud and AI infrastructure demand remains the primary growth engine; hea…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) provides a strong anchor; analys…
- Advertising segment (high-margin, ~$60B+ annualized run-rate) and third-party…
Top Risk
- Extremely high capex intensity (17.7% of revenue, ~$132B) for AI/cloud infrastructure c…
- FTC scrutiny over ad pricing and disclosures (per Yahoo Finance, June 2026) could resul…
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions (EU, US FTC) could cons…
Delta
No change
stable-waccstable-growthstable-margin
DEEPSEEK →ADJTV
DCF 125.00 → Cal. 181.26
Key Drivers
- AWS growth driven by AI and Graviton5 chip margins
- E-commerce logistics scale becoming a broader service offering
- Advertising revenue expansion as a high-margin segment
Top Risk
- Intense competition in cloud and e-commerce
- Regulatory and antitrust pressures
- High capex requirements (17.7% of revenue) constrain free cash flow
Delta
No change
no change
GROK →ADJ
DCF 125.00 → Cal. 181.26
Key Drivers
- AWS segment continues to deliver high incremental margins with AI-driven demand
- Advertising and Prime subscription mix shift supports structural margin expan…
- North America retail operating leverage partially offsets International segme…
Top Risk
- High beta (1.44) implies elevated sensitivity to macro and interest rate changes
- Heavy ongoing capex (17.7% of revenue) delays free-cash-flow realization
- Regulatory scrutiny on advertising practices could result in material penalties
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+1.0pp
WACC+1.0pp
wacc upmargin up
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 13.0% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% +0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 16.0% | 14.0% | 18.0% +2.0pp | 21.0% | 14.0% +1.0pp |
| WACC | 9.7% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 11.5% +1.0pp |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 11.0% | 14.0% | +3.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 16.0% | 20.4% | +4.4pp |
| WACC | 9.7% | 8.6% | -1.1pp |
Based on spot price $246.00 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin10.8%
EBITDA Margin21.0%
ROE22.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.6x
P/E Trailing29.1x
EV / EBITDA17.6x
P/B6.0x
Analyst Range207.00 – 370.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-06-17
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