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AI model estimates for Amazon.com Inc. vs spot price
2026-07-31🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer⚠ Top disagreement #3
235.50 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$196.00
$278.56
As of 2026-07-31, 5 AI models estimate AMZN median target $181.09 (-23.1% vs spot $235.50, model agreement 0.65). Analyst consensus $313.07 (61 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$181.09
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-23.1%
Agreement
0.655/5 models
Raw 0.65
Dispersion
σ 17.9%
Analyst consensus
$313.07(61 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$220.68
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on AMZN. Key concern: Elevated capex intensity at 17.7% of revenue compresses near-term free cash f... AI consensus estimate 181.09 23.1% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.65). Analyst consensus: 313.07 (AI -42.2%).Bear Case (min)
$149.31
-36.6%
Base Case (median)
$181.09
-23.1%
Bull Case (max)
$240.45
2.1%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:167.30→181.09(+8.2%)
CAGR+1.0pp(3 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(3 ↑)
post-earnings-updateaws-beat-confirmedrevenue-cagr-raised
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-31, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for AMZN moved from $151.00 to $181.09 (+19.9%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 12.8% → 17.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-24) | Now (2026-07-31) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $151.00 | $181.09 | +19.9% |
| Median WACC | 11.00% | 11.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 11.0% | 12.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 14.0% | 14.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 12.8% | 17.9% | +5.12 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 240.45 → Cal. 262.24
Key Drivers
- Q2 2026 earnings beat confirmed: AWS growth acceleration and record AI capex …
- Advertising segment grew 26% in Q2 2026, now a high-margin, scaled business —…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) is being accelerated by analyst …
Top Risk
- Elevated capex intensity at 17.7% of revenue compresses near-term free cash flow; CEO s…
- AWS faces intensifying competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, as well as em…
- Beta of 1.461 is above the CAPM threshold used for WACC; company carries meaningful mar…
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG+2.0pp
post-earnings-updateaws-beat-confirmedrevenue-cagr-raised
GPT →TV
DCF 220.38 → Cal. 248.19
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% provides a solid base, but a modest moderati…
- Recent analyst revenue growth expectations of 16.6% and earnings growth of 74…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 10.8% leaves room for steady-state expansion from mix…
Top Risk
- Heavy capital spending could pressure near-term free cash flow and delay margin expansi…
- Retail and logistics execution can keep margins under pressure if fulfillment costs rise.
- AWS or advertising growth could slow if enterprise spending or digital ad demand weakens.
Delta
CAGR+2.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
fresh viewgrowth upmargin stable
GEMINI →TV
DCF 181.09 → Cal. 220.68
Key Drivers
- AWS growth acceleration driven by secular demand for cloud computing and gene…
- High-margin advertising services expanding rapidly and outperforming core ret…
- Operational efficiencies and fulfillment network optimization driving retail …
Top Risk
- Heavy capital expenditure requirements for AI infrastructure pressuring near-term free …
- Intense competition in cloud computing from major tech rivals like Microsoft and Google
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in the US and Europe impacting business operations
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
earnings beataws accelerationcapex expansion
DCF 164.17 → Cal. 208.84
Key Drivers
- AWS continues to drive high-margin cloud and AI revenue growth, with Q2 2026 …
- Advertising business expanding rapidly, with Q2 2026 advertising revenue up 2…
- Prime subscription base provides recurring, high-margin income and enhances c…
Top Risk
- Regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions across multiple jurisdictions could impact bu…
- Intense competition in cloud computing from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud could pres…
- Elevated capex (17.7% of revenue) may pressure free cash flow and returns if AI investm…
Delta
No change
no change
DCF 149.31 → Cal. 198.44
Key Drivers
- AWS and advertising revenue mix shift driving margin expansion
- Historical revenue CAGR 11.7% (2022-2025) with near-term analyst growth 16.6%
- Heavy ongoing AI/capex investment expected to support long-term growth
Top Risk
- Elevated capex intensity (17.7% of revenue) may pressure near-term free cash flow
- Retail segment margin pressure from competition and promotions
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in US and EU
Delta
No previous data
rerun
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 14.0% +1.0pp | 12.0% | 12.0% +0.5pp | 14.0% +2.5pp | 12.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 19.0% +2.0pp | 14.0% | 14.0% +0.5pp | 12.5% +0.5pp | 14.0% |
| WACC | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.0% | 18.4% | +6.4pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.0% | 23.0% | +9.0pp |
| WACC | 11.0% | 8.6% | -2.4pp |
Based on spot price $235.50 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin10.8%
EBITDA Margin21.0%
ROE22.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.6x
P/E Trailing27.9x
EV / EBITDA16.8x
P/B5.7x
Analyst Range207.00 – 370.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-31
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