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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Amazon.com Inc. markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer
256.26 USD
edellinen päätöskurssi — ei reaaliaikainen
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$196.00
$287.20

Tilanne 2026-08-28: 5 AI-mallia arvioi AMZN:n mediaaniksi 157.91 USD (-38.4% suhteessa spotiin 256.26 USD, mallien yksimielisyys 0.65). Analyytikkokonsensus 327.00 USD (60 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$157.91
Mallin puhdas arvio — ei analyytikkosekoitusta
Ero
-38.4%
Yksimielisyys
0.655/5 mallia
Raaka 0.65
Hajonta
σ 18.1%
Analyytikkokonsensus
$327.00(60 analyytikkoa)
Kalibroitu sekoitus (tutkimussarja)
$208.64
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia AMZN. Huomioitavaa: Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny: Persistent investigations and legal challe... AI-konsensusarvio 157.91 38.4% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on kohtalainen (0.65). Analyytikkokonsensus: 327.00 (AI -51.7%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokAMZNAmazon.com …256.3spot327.0analysts107156205253302351
Pessimistinen (min)
$130.80
-49.0%
Perus (mediaani)
$157.91
-38.4%
Optimistinen (max)
$210.08
-18.0%
Bear/Base/Bull: mallien oma haarukka (12 kk:n arvot)

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:157.91→157.91(+0.0%)
CAGR
+0.5pp(2 ↑)
MARG
+0.5pp(2 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stablethesis-unchanged

Mikä muuttui (7 pv)

2026-08-21 → 2026-08-28: AMZN: 5 mallin AI-konsensusarvio liikkui $166.19 → $157.91 (-5.0 %); mediaani-WACC 11.0 % → 11.3 % (+0.25 pp); terminaalikasvu 2.5 % → 2.5 % (+0.00 pp); mallien hajonta σ 24.0 % → 18.1 %. Kokeellisia malliarvioita — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

Mittari7 pv sitten (2026-08-21)Nyt (2026-08-28)Muutos
AI-konsensusarvio$166.19$157.91-5.0%
Mediaani-WACC11.00%11.25%+0.25 pp
Mediaani terminaalikasvu2.50%2.50%+0.00 pp
Mediaani liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)12.5%12.0%-0.50 pp
Mediaani EBIT-marginaalitavoite13.5%13.0%-0.50 pp
Mallien hajonta σ24.0%18.1%-5.93 pp

Mallien erittely

CLAUDE →
Est.
210.08
Ero
-18.0%
Conf
0.73
DCF 210.08 → Kal. 245.15
Avaintekijät
  • AWS cloud and AI infrastructure demand remains the primary growth engine; ent…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) provides a strong baseline; anal…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 10.3% is significantly below EBITDA margin of 21.8%, …
Suurin riski
  • Heavy capex cycle (17% of revenue, $131.8B in FY2025) compresses near-term free cash fl…
  • Beta of 1.45 reflects meaningful market risk sensitivity — macro deterioration or risk-…
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across e-commerce, cloud, and advertising segments in…
Muutos
All four core assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. No new primary-source data from allowed domains warra…
Ei muutosta
no-changeassumptions-stablethesis-unchanged
GEMINI →TV
Est.
188.13
Ero
-26.6%
Conf
0.85
DCF 188.13 → Kal. 229.79
Avaintekijät
  • AWS and AI expansion: Continued leadership in cloud infrastructure and rapid …
  • Fulfillment network regionalization: Ongoing optimization of logistics and de…
  • High-margin advertising services: Rapid growth of digital advertising across …
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny: Persistent investigations and legal challenges from …
  • Intense cloud competition: Market share pressure from rival hyperscalers in enterprise …
  • Macroeconomic headwinds: Sensitivity of consumer discretionary spending to inflation, i…
Muutos
Assumptions remain unchanged from the previous model as core growth drivers in AWS, digital advertising, and retail e…
Ei muutosta
no changereconfirmed
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
157.91
Ero
-38.4%
Conf
0.75
DCF 157.91 → Kal. 208.64
Avaintekijät
  • High-margin AWS, advertising, and third-party seller services continue to shi…
  • Near-term top-line growth remains elevated, supporting a double-digit normali…
  • Logistics scale, Prime ecosystem, and advertising leverage should support EBI…
Suurin riski
  • Elevated capex of roughly 17% of revenue could pressure cash conversion and returns if …
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across multiple geographies remains a material overhang.
  • AWS margins could be pressured if heavy AI infrastructure spending does not translate i…
Muutos
No material new financial disclosures since the previous model; the four core valuation assumptions were maintained.
Ei muutosta
no changeassumptions maintained
GPT →TV
Est.
138.97
Ero
-45.8%
Conf
0.63
DCF 138.97 → Kal. 195.38
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR is strong at 11.7%, but a 5-year forecast should mode…
  • Trailing EBIT margin is 10.3%, with room for gradual expansion from higher-ma…
  • Capex intensity is elevated at 17.0% of revenue, which supports growth but li…
Suurin riski
  • Heavy investment in logistics, AI infrastructure, and fulfillment could delay margin ex…
  • Retail competition and pricing pressure may limit sustained EBIT margin improvement.
  • AWS growth can be cyclical and sensitive to enterprise spending patterns.
Muutos
Assumptions are broadly stable. Revenue growth is nudged slightly higher to reflect continued scale and forward growt…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
fresh viewgrowth upliftwacc anchor
GROK →
Est.
130.80
Ero
-49.0%
Conf
0.55
DCF 130.80 → Kal. 189.66
Avaintekijät
  • AWS and advertising mix shift supports sustained double-digit revenue growth
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% provides conservative base for forward outlook
  • EBITDA margin of 21.8% indicates potential for steady-state EBIT margin expan…
Suurin riski
  • High beta of 1.45 increases cost of capital sensitivity
  • Capex-to-revenue at 17% may pressure near-term free cash flow
  • Competition in cloud and retail segments could limit margin expansion
Muutos
Revenue CAGR raised modestly to reflect stronger near-term signals from AWS and ads; margin target lifted slightly wh…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
stablegrowth outlook

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V14.0%12.0%12.5%9.0%
+0.5pp
11.0%
+0.5pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite17.0%14.0%12.5%12.0%
+0.5pp
13.0%
+0.5pp
WACC11.8%11.3%10.0%9.5%11.5%
Terminaalikasvu3.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)12.0%21.0%+9.0pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite13.0%27.7%+14.7pp
WACC11.3%8.0%-3.2pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan $256.26 ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali10.3%
EBITDA-marginaali21.8%
ROE32.9%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.8x
P/E20.4x
EV / EBITDA17.1x
P/B5.0x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli230.00 – 405.00
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, ent
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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