49.49 EUR
52-Week Range
47.94 €
70.00 €
As of 2026-06-17, 5 AI models estimate KNEBV median target 59.51 € (+20.2% vs spot 49.49 €, model agreement 0.74). Analyst consensus 61.67 € (23 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
59.51 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+20.2%
Agreement
0.745/5 models
Raw 0.67
Dispersion
σ 0.12
Analyst consensus
61.67 €(23 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on KNEBV. Key driver: TK Elevator (TKE) acquisition at ~€29.4bn creates the world's largest elevato... AI consensus estimate 59.51 20.2% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.74). Analyst consensus: 61.67 (AI -3.5%).Bear Case (min)
50.52 €
2.1%
Base Case (median)
59.51 €
+20.2%
Bull Case (max)
81.44 €
64.6%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:60.79→59.51(-2.1%)
CAGR-0.5pp(1 ↓)
no assumption changestable modeltke deal pending
Model Breakdown
DCF 81.44 → Cal. 75.51
Key Drivers
- TK Elevator (TKE) acquisition at ~€29.4bn creates the world's largest elevato…
- Maintenance and modernization segment (~50%+ of revenue) provides high-margin…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 11.8% has a credible expansion path toward 12.5% as T…
Top Risk
- TKE integration risk is substantial: the ~€29.4bn deal introduces significant execution…
- Post-acquisition leverage will rise sharply from the current near-zero net debt positio…
- China construction slowdown remains a structural headwind — KONE has historically deriv…
Delta
No change
no assumption changestable modeltke deal pending
DCF 62.36 → Cal. 62.16
Key Drivers
- Strong demand in modernization and maintenance services
- Strategic acquisitions enhancing market position
- Growth in new product offerings and technologies
Top Risk
- Economic downturn impacting construction and renovations
- Supply chain disruptions affecting production
- Intense competition in the industrials sector
Delta
No previous data
assumptionsstability
DCF 58.59 → Cal. 59.51
Key Drivers
- TK Elevator acquisition materially expands revenue base and global scale
- historical revenue CAGR 1.0% with stable maintenance/services mix
- trailing EBIT margin 11.8% supports normalized target near 12%
Top Risk
- execution and integration risk on large cross-border acquisition
- cyclical exposure to construction and capex cycles
- margin pressure from pricing competition in new equipment
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 58.34 → Cal. 59.34
Key Drivers
- Strategic acquisition of TK Elevator expected to significantly expand market …
- Potential for revenue growth and operational synergies from the integration o…
- Global urbanization and infrastructure development driving demand for new ins…
Top Risk
- Integration challenges and potential costs associated with the large-scale TK Elevator …
- Cyclicality of the construction and real estate markets impacting new equipment orders.
- Intense competition from established global players in the elevator and escalator indus…
Delta
CAGR-0.5pp
Revenue Growth AdjustmentAcquisition Integration
DCF 50.52 → Cal. 53.86
Key Drivers
- Acquisition of TK Elevator for ~€29.4bn expected to create world's largest el…
- Strong service and modernization backlog provides near-term revenue visibility
- Historical revenue CAGR of 1% (2022-2025) anchors conservative growth outlook…
Top Risk
- Integration risk from TK Elevator acquisition may delay synergies and pressure margins …
- Cyclical exposure to global construction and real estate markets could weigh on new equ…
- Regulatory and antitrust approvals for the TKE deal may impose conditions or delays
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 8.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% -0.5pp | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 12.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.0% | 2.2% | -2.8pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.5% | 9.6% | -2.9pp |
| WACC | 8.0% | 9.3% | +1.3pp |
Based on spot price 49.49 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin11.8%
EBITDA Margin13.7%
ROE35.0%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing26.2x
EV / EBITDA16.4x
P/B12.2x
Analyst Range45.00 – 84.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-06-17
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