As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate FUM1V median target 11.69 € (-49.3% vs spot 23.07 €, model agreement 0.65). Analyst consensus 22.58 € (18 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
11.69 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-49.3%
Agreement
0.655/5 models
Raw 0.65
Dispersion
σ 17.8%
Analyst consensus
22.58 €(18 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
14.96 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on FUM1V.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for FUM1V moved from 11.69 € to 11.69 € (+0.0%); median WACC 7.0% → 7.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 21.0% → 17.8%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
New nuclear project in Sweden carries significant execution, regulatory, and financing …
Revenue CAGR could disappoint if the 2026 analyst revenue growth estimate of +15.4% pro…
Delta
No material new primary-source information has emerged since the previous model run on 2026-10-15; all four core assu…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.0%
2.5%
3.5%
2.0%
2.0%
EBIT Margin Target
19.0%
18.0%
17.5%
18.0%
17.0%
WACC
7.0%
7.0%
8.5%
4.5%
7.0%
Terminal Growth
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
2.5%
11.5%
+8.9pp
WACC
7.0%
4.4%
-2.6pp
Based on spot price 23.07 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin16.8%
EBITDA Margin23.3%
ROE9.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.4x
P/E Trailing25.0x
EV / EBITDA17.6x
P/B2.5x
Analyst Range14.90 – 28.30
Fortum Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and sale of electricity and heat to private and business customers in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and internationally. It operates through Generation, Consumer Solutions, and Other Operations segments. The Generation segment offers low-carbon hydro, nuclear, onshore wind, and solar power generation; district heating and cooling; and decarbonization services. The Consumer Solutions segment offers invoicing and customer services; electricity and related value-added products; and digital services for consumers, including small- and medium-sized enterprises. It is also involved in the electricity and gas retail business; power trading and energy supply services; industrial site development; and battery recycling activities. The company was formerly known as IVO-Neste Yhtymä Oyj and changed its name to Fortum Oyj in June 1998. The company has strategic partnership with Google for nuclear power purchase agreement. Fortum Oyj was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Sensitivity to Nordic spot electricity prices and regional hydrological reser...
AI consensus estimate 11.69 49.3% below the current price.
Model agreement is moderate (0.65).
Analyst consensus: 22.58 (AI -48.2%).
Bear Case (min)
9.74 €
-57.8%
Base Case (median)
11.69 €
-49.3%
Bull Case (max)
16.09 €
-30.3%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)