19.30 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
14.40 €
22.92 €
As of 2026-07-31, 5 AI models estimate FUM1V median target 11.29 € (-41.5% vs spot 19.30 €, model agreement 0.66). Analyst consensus 17.94 € (18 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
11.29 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-41.5%
Agreement
0.665/5 models
Raw 0.66
Dispersion
σ 17.0%
Analyst consensus
17.94 €(18 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
13.29 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on FUM1V. Key concern: Nordic wholesale electricity price volatility remains the primary earnings ri... AI consensus estimate 11.29 41.5% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.66). Analyst consensus: 17.94 (AI -37.1%).Bear Case (min)
8.27 €
-57.2%
Base Case (median)
11.29 €
-41.5%
Bull Case (max)
13.65 €
-29.3%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:11.29→11.29(+0.0%)
no-changestable-assumptionsq2-2026-confirmed
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-31, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for FUM1V moved from 9.83 € to 11.29 € (+14.9%); median WACC 8.0% → 7.0% (-1.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 25.5% → 17.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-24) | Now (2026-07-31) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 9.83 € | 11.29 € | +14.9% |
| Median WACC | 8.00% | 7.00% | -1.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 2.5% | -0.50 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 17.0% | 17.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 25.5% | 17.0% | -8.51 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 13.65 → Cal. 14.94
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue decline (-13.7% CAGR 2022-2025) reflects post-energy-crisi…
- Analyst 1Y revenue growth estimate of +15.4% signals a meaningful cyclical re…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 16.8% reflects a structurally advantaged low-carbon g…
Top Risk
- Nordic wholesale electricity price volatility remains the primary earnings risk — a sus…
- Regulatory and political risk in Finland and Sweden (nuclear licensing, grid tariffs, p…
- Heavy capex requirements (9.1% of revenue) for fleet maintenance and renewable expansio…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsq2-2026-confirmed
DCF 11.69 → Cal. 13.57
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin of 16.8% is a solid anchor for a steady-state target nea…
- Revenue has fallen from EUR 7.774bn in 2022 to EUR 4.989bn in 2025, which is …
- Business mix includes low-carbon generation, district heating and cooling, an…
Top Risk
- Power-price volatility can still affect realized revenue and margins despite the utilit…
- Nordic energy market and regulatory conditions can change returns on generation assets …
- Consumer solutions and retail power exposure can be more competitive and lower margin t…
Delta
No change
unchangedutility energydefensive beta
DCF 11.29 → Cal. 13.29
Key Drivers
- Stable Nordic utility cash flows from hydro/nuclear generation
- Modest volume growth via renewables and battery recycling
- Trailing EBIT margin 16.8% provides normalized mid-cycle anchor
Top Risk
- Commodity power price volatility
- Regulatory changes in Nordic energy markets
- High capex intensity for transition investments
Delta
No previous data
DCF 9.54 → Cal. 12.06
Key Drivers
- Strong low-carbon generation portfolio, primarily hydro and nuclear, providin…
- Long-term Nordic electrification and industrial decarbonization driving elect…
- Disciplined capital allocation with focus on clean energy transition and batt…
Top Risk
- Nordic power price volatility and hedging effectiveness
- Regulatory and political interventions in energy markets and windfall taxes
- Operational risks and fuel supply chain transitions for nuclear assets
Delta
No change
stable outlookutilitynordic energy
DCF 8.27 → Cal. 11.17
Key Drivers
- Low-carbon hydro and nuclear base provides stable cash flows and margin resil…
- Analyst consensus 1-year revenue growth of 15.4% indicates near-term rebound …
- Expansion into onshore wind, solar, and battery recycling supports modest vol…
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility (electricity, fuel) can materially impact revenue and margins
- Regulatory changes in Nordic energy markets or EU climate policies could alter profitab…
- Nuclear plant outages or unplanned maintenance affect generation volumes
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 19.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| WACC | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.5% | 10.1% | +7.6pp |
| WACC | 7.0% | 4.7% | -2.3pp |
Based on spot price 19.30 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin16.8%
EBITDA Margin23.3%
ROE9.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.4x
P/E Trailing20.9x
EV / EBITDA14.9x
P/B2.1x
Analyst Range14.60 – 22.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-31
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