67.20 EUR
52-Week Range
56.50 €
75.30 €
As of 2026-06-17, 5 AI models estimate ORNBV median target 92.66 € (+37.9% vs spot 67.20 €, model agreement 0.81). Analyst consensus 74.17 € (6 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
92.66 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+37.9%
Agreement
0.815/5 models
Raw 0.76
Dispersion
σ 0.08
Analyst consensus
74.17 €(6 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on ORNBV. Key driver: Continued strong revenue growth, supported by the company's oncology pipeline... AI consensus estimate 92.66 37.9% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.81). Analyst consensus: 74.17 (AI +24.9%).Bear Case (min)
95.06 €
41.5%
Base Case (median)
92.66 €
+37.9%
Bull Case (max)
122.40 €
82.1%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:93.06→92.66(-0.4%)
no-changesteady-statepipeline-optionality-noted
Model Breakdown
DCF 122.40 → Cal. 107.93
Key Drivers
- Continued strong revenue growth, supported by the company's oncology pipeline…
- Sustained high EBIT margins, reflecting the value of proprietary pharmaceutic…
- Diversified product portfolio spanning human and veterinary pharmaceuticals a…
Top Risk
- Potential impact of patent expirations on key revenue-generating drugs.
- Uncertainty in R&D success rates and the timeline for new product approvals.
- Intense competition within the global pharmaceutical market.
Delta
No change
no change
DCF 117.60 → Cal. 104.57
Key Drivers
- Nubeqa (darolutamide) royalty stream from Bayer partnership remains the prima…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (2022–2025: €1.34B→€1.89B) and analyst conse…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 32.2% is well above the healthcare/pharma sector typi…
Top Risk
- Nubeqa royalty concentration: a significant share of current profitability depends on B…
- Post-peak royalty margin compression: as Nubeqa royalties plateau or decline, the blend…
- Pipeline execution risk: Hippo pathway and other oncology candidates are early-stage; c…
Delta
No change
no-changesteady-statepipeline-optionality-noted
DCF 100.58 → Cal. 92.66
Key Drivers
- Strong growth in oncology and psychiatric medications
- Expansion into new markets
- R&D pipeline supporting future growth
Top Risk
- Potential patent expirations impacting revenues
- Regulatory challenges
- Market competition and pricing pressures
Delta
No previous data
assumptionsgrowth
DCF 97.98 → Cal. 90.84
Key Drivers
- Nubeqa and oncology pipeline expansion
- Easyhaler respiratory portfolio scale
- Historical revenue CAGR 12.1% moderating to sustainable levels
Top Risk
- Patent cliff exposure on key molecules
- R&D spend pressure on near-term margins
- Regulatory approval delays for pipeline assets
Delta
No previous data
date roll
DCF 95.06 → Cal. 88.80
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% driven by Nubeqa and Easyhaler portfolio
- Oncology pipeline (Hippo pathway data) adds new growth dimension
- Record 2025 results and dividend hike signal confidence in capital allocation
Top Risk
- Patent expirations on key products (e.g., Entacapone, Stalevo) could pressure revenue
- Concentration risk from Nubeqa and Parkinson's franchise
- Regulatory and pricing pressure in European pharma markets
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 9.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 31.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 35.0% | 33.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 9.0% | 2.6% | -6.4pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 32.0% | 21.1% | -10.9pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 11.4% | +2.9pp |
Based on spot price 67.20 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin32.2%
EBITDA Margin36.9%
ROE41.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.2x
P/E Trailing17.9x
EV / EBITDA13.3x
P/B8.4x
Analyst Range55.00 – 81.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-06-17
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy