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AI model estimates for Fortum Oyj vs spot price
2026-08-28🇫🇮 OMXHenergy⚠ Top disagreement #3
21.02 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
14.40 €
22.92 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate FUM1V median target 10.83 € (-48.5% vs spot 21.02 €, model agreement 0.63). Analyst consensus 17.97 € (18 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
10.83 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-48.5%
Agreement
0.635/5 models
Raw 0.63
Dispersion
σ 19.2%
Analyst consensus
17.97 €(18 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
12.97 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on FUM1V. Key concern: Exposure to volatile wholesale electricity and commodity prices AI consensus estimate 10.83 48.5% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.63). Analyst consensus: 17.97 (AI -39.8%).Bear Case (min)
7.92 €
-62.3%
Base Case (median)
10.83 €
-48.5%
Bull Case (max)
12.71 €
-39.5%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:10.83→10.83(+0.0%)
no-changestable-assumptionsconsistent-news-flow
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for FUM1V moved from 9.10 € to 10.83 € (+19.0%); median WACC 7.0% → 7.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 21.7% → 19.2%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 9.10 € | 10.83 € | +19.0% |
| Median WACC | 7.00% | 7.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 2.5% | -0.50 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 16.0% | 17.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 21.7% | 19.2% | -2.50 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 12.71 → Cal. 14.29
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue decline (-13.7% CAGR 2022-2025) is commodity-cycle driven …
- 5Y forward CAGR anchored at 3% reflecting modest volume growth in hydro, nucl…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 16.8% is a solid anchor; steady-state target of 18% r…
Top Risk
- Nordic wholesale electricity price volatility is the primary earnings risk; a sustained…
- Regulatory and policy risk in Finland and Sweden (e.g. windfall taxes, capacity market …
- New nuclear project in Sweden is subject to state aid approval, permitting, and constru…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsconsistent-news-flow
DCF 11.69 → Cal. 13.57
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin of 16.8% indicates a relatively stable utility-style ear…
- Historical revenue CAGR of -13.7% likely reflects energy-price normalization …
- Low beta of 0.083 supports a CAPM-based discount rate near the low end of the…
Top Risk
- Power-price and hydro/nuclear generation variability can move revenue and margins year …
- Consumer Solutions and retail energy exposure can face competitive pressure and margin …
- Regulatory and policy changes in Nordic power markets could affect realized returns.
Delta
No change
unchangedutility stylelow beta
DCF 10.83 → Cal. 12.97
Key Drivers
- Generation segment focused on low-carbon hydro, nuclear and renewables
- Trailing EBIT margin 16.8% supports steady-state target near 17%
- Nordic regulated utility cash flows support low-beta profile
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in power markets
- Regulatory changes affecting nuclear and hydro assets
- High capex intensity (9.1% of revenue) may pressure free cash flow
Delta
No previous data
DCF 7.92 → Cal. 10.94
Key Drivers
- Strong asset base in low-carbon hydro and nuclear power generation in the Nor…
- Stabilization of Nordic electricity prices supporting wholesale power revenues
- Growth in decarbonization services and battery recycling initiatives
Top Risk
- Exposure to volatile wholesale electricity and commodity prices
- Regulatory changes and potential windfall taxes in Nordic energy markets
- Operational and maintenance risks in nuclear and hydro power assets
Delta
No change
stable waccutility profilelow carbon
DCF 7.92 → Cal. 10.93
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -13.7% (2022-2025) reflects post-2022 Nordic power…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 16.8% is supported by a low-carbon hydro/nuclear gene…
- WACC of 8.75% is based on the Energy/Materials sector midpoint of 9.25%, shad…
Top Risk
- Nordic power price normalization or sharper wholesale price volatility could reduce rev…
- Hydrology and weather variability affect hydro generation output and district heating/c…
- Nuclear operations carry regulatory, safety, fuel supply and decommissioning liability …
Delta
No change
assumptions-unchangednews-confirmed
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 18.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| WACC | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.5% | 11.2% | +8.7pp |
| WACC | 7.0% | 4.5% | -2.5pp |
Based on spot price 21.02 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin16.8%
EBITDA Margin23.3%
ROE9.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.4x
P/E Trailing22.8x
EV / EBITDA16.1x
P/B2.3x
Analyst Range14.60 – 22.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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