As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate NVDA median target $143.34 (-34.0% vs spot $217.23, model agreement 0.53). Analyst consensus $328.72 (59 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$143.34
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-34.0%
Agreement
0.535/5 models
Raw 0.53
Dispersion
σ 29.4%
Analyst consensus
$328.72(59 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$198.95
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on NVDA.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NVDA moved from $143.34 to $143.34 (+0.0%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 29.4% → 29.4%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Market leadership in accelerated computing architectures, networking hardware…
Deep moat built on the CUDA ecosystem and high switching costs across cloud s…
Strong operating leverage delivering expanded EBIT margins near 43–45% alongs…
Top Risk
Potential capex digestion cycles or deceleration in hyperscaler data center AI infrastr…
Increasing market competition from custom cloud ASICs and alternative accelerator chipm…
Supply chain constraints and geopolitical vulnerabilities affecting advanced chip fabri…
Delta
Maintained core valuation assumptions as long-term AI infrastructure growth fundamentals and financial metrics remain…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
22.0%
18.0%
30.0%
11.0%
-1.0pp
22.0%
EBIT Margin Target
45.0%
45.0%
45.0%
46.0%
40.0%
WACC
11.5%
10.5%
11.0%
10.5%
11.0%
Terminal Growth
4.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.5%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
22.0%
24.2%
+2.2pp
EBIT Margin Target
45.0%
52.0%
+7.0pp
WACC
11.0%
10.1%
-0.9pp
Based on spot price $217.23 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin43.0%
EBITDA Margin66.4%
ROE122.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.1x
P/E Trailing27.2x
EV / EBITDA25.9x
P/B22.9x
Analyst Range180.00 – 515.00
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. It has a collaboration with Cisco to develop Ultra-Dense Small Form Factor Pluggable (USFP), a high-density optical module pluggable transceiver. It has a collaboration with ChipAgents to dev
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Potential capex digestion cycles or deceleration in hyperscaler data center A...
AI consensus estimate 143.34 34.0% below the current price.
Model agreement is moderate (0.53).
Analyst consensus: 328.72 (AI -56.4%).
Bear Case (min)
$131.49
-39.5%
Base Case (median)
$143.34
-34.0%
Bull Case (max)
$260.32
19.8%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)