← Back to Models

AI model estimates for
NVIDIA Corporation vs spot price

2026-06-17🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Top disagreement #3
207.41 USD
52-Week Range
$142.03
$236.54

As of 2026-06-17, 5 AI models estimate NVDA median target $190.89 (-8.0% vs spot $207.41, model agreement 0.72). Analyst consensus $298.93 (59 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$190.89
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-8.0%
Agreement
0.725/5 models
Raw 0.59
Dispersion
σ 0.13
Analyst consensus
$298.93(59 analysts)
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are negative on NVDA. Key concern: Intense competition from other semiconductor companies and in-house chip deve... AI consensus estimate 190.89 8.0% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.72). Analyst consensus: 298.93 (AI -36.1%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNVDANVIDIA Corp…207.4spot298.9analysts158189221252283314
Bear Case (min)
$119.57
-42.3%
Base Case (median)
$190.89
-8.0%
Bull Case (max)
$200.32
-3.4%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:199.21→190.89(-4.2%)
CAGR
-1.0pp(1 ↓)
MARG
-1.0pp(1 ↓)
stable×2no-changestable-assumptions

Model Breakdown

DEEPSEEK →
Est.
229.91
Gap
+10.8%
Conf
0.70
DCF 200.32 → Cal. 229.91
Key Drivers
  • Data center AI infrastructure demand continues to drive revenue growth; forwa…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 51.4% reflects strong operating leverage; target marg…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 100% (2023-2026) is exceptional but moderates as b…
Top Risk
  • Extreme beta of 2.20 indicates high systematic risk; any macroeconomic slowdown or shif…
  • Revenue concentration in data center segment; a slowdown in hyperscaler capex could mat…
  • Geopolitical risks related to semiconductor export controls and supply chain dependenci…
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. All four key inputs remain identical.
No change
no changestable
GEMINI →
Est.
229.91
Gap
+10.8%
Conf
0.75
DCF 200.32 → Cal. 229.91
Key Drivers
  • Dominance in the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure and accelerated computin…
  • Strong demand for data center GPUs driven by cloud service providers and ente…
  • Continued innovation in AI hardware, software platforms, and full-stack solut…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition from other semiconductor companies and in-house chip development by…
  • Cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, potentially leading to demand fluctuations.
  • Geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains, manufacturing, or market access.
Delta
All key valuation assumptions remain stable compared to yesterday, reflecting a consistent outlook for NVIDIA's growt…
No change
STABLE ASSUMPTIONS
GROK →
Est.
190.89
Gap
-8.0%
Conf
0.65
DCF 144.59 → Cal. 190.89
Key Drivers
  • AI data center demand driving revenue growth
  • Sustained high EBIT margins near 50% from scale and mix
  • Historical CAGR moderating to long-term sustainable rate
Top Risk
  • Competition from custom ASICs and rival accelerators
  • Geopolitical and export restrictions on advanced chips
  • Potential slowdown in hyperscaler capex cycles
Delta
Minor moderation in 5y CAGR and target margin to reflect maturing growth trajectory; WACC unchanged.
CAGR
-1.0pp
MARG
-1.0pp
minor adjustment
CLAUDE →ADJ
Est.
173.38
Gap
-16.4%
Conf
0.65
DCF 119.57 → Cal. 173.38
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of ~100% (FY2023–FY2026: $27B to $216B) driven by exp…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 51.4% and EBITDA margin of 65.3% reflect extraordinar…
  • Dominant market position in AI accelerators (Hopper/Blackwell architecture) w…
Top Risk
  • Hyperscaler capex concentration risk: a handful of cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, …
  • Custom AI chip competitive threat (Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium, Microsoft Maia, AMD MI…
  • US export controls on advanced chips to China represent a structural revenue headwind; …
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model (2026-06-16). No new material primary-sour…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
GPT →ADJ
Est.
173.38
Gap
-16.4%
Conf
0.70
DCF 119.57 → Cal. 173.38
Key Drivers
  • Growth in AI and data center markets
  • High demand for GPUs across sectors
  • Potential for margin expansion through operational efficiencies
Top Risk
  • Increased competitive pressures in the semiconductor space
  • Regulatory scrutiny on data and AI technologies
  • Potential supply chain disruptions
Delta
No significant changes in valuation assumptions since yesterday.
No previous data
stablevaluation

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y22.0%30.0%80.0%8.5%27.0%
-1.0pp
EBIT Margin Target50.0%55.0%55.0%55.0%47.0%
-1.0pp
WACC11.5%11.5%10.8%11.5%11.0%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)27.0%24.3%-2.7pp
EBIT Margin Target55.0%45.9%-9.1pp
WACC11.5%12.8%+1.2pp
Based on spot price $207.41 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin51.4%
EBITDA Margin65.3%
ROE101.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing31.5x
EV / EBITDA30.1x
P/B25.7x
Analyst Range180.00 – 500.00
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Source: Yahoo Finance

Recent News

SpaceX closes in on Amazon in sprint toward $3 trillion2026-06-16
SpaceX becomes retail's biggest IPO trade: Chart of the Day2026-06-16
2 Industrial Stocks Worth Watching2026-06-17
Looking to Ride SpaceX Stock Higher? Consider Using Options.2026-06-17

More in technology

AAPL · Apple Inc.GOOGL · Alphabet Inc.META · Meta Platforms Inc.MSFT · Microsoft CorporationTSLA · Tesla Inc.NOKIA · Nokia Oyj
Subscribe to Email UpdatesFree · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime · Privacy Policy
AI Investor Barometer · 2026-06-17
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy