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AI model estimates for NVIDIA Corporation vs spot price
2026-07-31🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Top disagreement #2
195.04 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$164.07
$236.54
As of 2026-07-31, 5 AI models estimate NVDA median target $179.19 (-8.1% vs spot $195.04, model agreement 0.54). Analyst consensus $302.83 (58 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$179.19
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-8.1%
Agreement
0.545/5 models
Raw 0.54
Dispersion
σ 28.5%
Analyst consensus
$302.83(58 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$216.28
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are negative on NVDA. Key concern: Cyclicality of the semiconductor industry and potential digestion phase by hy... AI consensus estimate 179.19 8.1% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.54). Analyst consensus: 302.83 (AI -40.8%).Bear Case (min)
$121.13
-37.9%
Base Case (median)
$179.19
-8.1%
Bull Case (max)
$265.45
36.1%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:149.32→179.19(+20.0%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG+1.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-assumption-changenews-confirms-thesismemory-bottleneck-noted
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-31, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NVDA moved from $179.19 to $179.19 (+0.0%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 23.6% → 28.5%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-24) | Now (2026-07-31) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $179.19 | $179.19 | +0.0% |
| Median WACC | 11.00% | 11.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 25.0% | 25.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 23.6% | 28.5% | +4.92 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 265.45 → Cal. 276.66
Key Drivers
- Sustained AI infrastructure investment by hyperscalers and enterprises
- Dominant position in data center accelerated computing with CUDA ecosystem lo…
- Expansion into automotive, robotics, and edge AI markets
Top Risk
- Cyclical semiconductor industry downturn as AI demand normalizes
- Geopolitical concentration of manufacturing in Taiwan
- Intensifying competition from AMD, Intel, and custom ASIC competitors
Delta
No previous data
no changes
DCF 242.39 → Cal. 260.52
Key Drivers
- Sustained demand for AI data center infrastructure and Blackwell GPU architec…
- Strong competitive moat from the proprietary CUDA software ecosystem.
- Expansion into enterprise AI software, sovereign AI, and automotive platforms.
Top Risk
- Cyclicality of the semiconductor industry and potential digestion phase by hyperscalers.
- Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions, particularly concerning China.
- Increasing competition from custom ASICs developed by hyperscalers (TPUs, Trainium).
Delta
No change
ai infrastructuresemiconductor cyclehigh margin sustained
DCF 179.19 → Cal. 216.28
Key Drivers
- Data center AI infrastructure leadership driving multi-year demand
- Trailing EBIT margin of 51.4% provides high steady-state anchor
- Historical revenue CAGR >100% moderating but still elevated due to AI tailwinds
Top Risk
- High beta (2.21) implies elevated cost of capital and volatility
- Potential margin pressure from competition or cyclical slowdown
- Heavy customer concentration in hyperscalers
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
cagr adjusted
DCF 149.32 → Cal. 195.37
Key Drivers
- Dominant AI accelerator market share: hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, M…
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~100% (FY2023–FY2026: $27B to $216B) reflects expl…
- Next-quarter revenue estimate of ~$91.8B and next earnings date of 2026-08-26…
Top Risk
- Extreme revenue concentration in AI/data center: any slowdown in hyperscaler capex or A…
- Geopolitical and export control risk: US restrictions on chip exports to China represen…
- Customer concentration: a small number of cloud service providers account for a large s…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changenews-confirms-thesismemory-bottleneck-noted
GPT →ADJ
DCF 121.13 → Cal. 175.64
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is already very high at 51.4%, so the steady-state targe…
- Historical revenue growth has been exceptional, but a 5-year forecast should …
- Beta of 2.211 points to elevated equity risk, supporting a WACC above a typic…
Top Risk
- AI infrastructure spending could normalize after a period of exceptional capex growth.
- Semiconductor supply chain concentration and customer concentration can amplify volatil…
- Competitive pressure in accelerators and networking could limit margin expansion over t…
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG+1.0pp
WACC+0.5pp
baselinehigh-growthhigh-margin
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 22.0% | 30.0% | 35.0% | 11.0% +1.0pp | 25.0% -1.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 50.0% | 55.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% +1.0pp | 50.0% |
| WACC | 11.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% +0.5pp | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 4.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 25.0% | 23.6% | -1.4pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.5pp |
| WACC | 11.0% | 11.6% | +0.6pp |
Based on spot price $195.04 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin51.4%
EBITDA Margin65.3%
ROE101.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing29.6x
EV / EBITDA28.3x
P/B24.2x
Analyst Range180.00 – 500.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-31
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