As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate NOKIA median target 8.46 € (+0.7% vs spot 8.40 €, model agreement 0.61). Analyst consensus 10.74 € (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
8.46 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+0.7%
Agreement
0.615/5 models
Raw 0.61
Dispersion
σ 21.5%
Analyst consensus
10.74 €(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
9.15 €
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on NOKIA.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NOKIA moved from 7.26 € to 8.46 € (+16.5%); median WACC 6.5% → 6.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 24.3% → 21.6%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
2022-2025 revenue fell from EUR 23,761M to EUR 19,889M (-5.8% historical CAGR…
Consensus 1-year revenue growth of +8.4% supports a reacceleration narrative,…
Trailing EBIT margin of 3.8% is depressed relative to the 12.8% EBITDA margin…
Top Risk
Telecom carrier capex cyclicality remains the dominant demand risk if AI, 6G and privat…
The multi-year revenue decline from 2022 to 2025 means the positive 5-year growth assum…
Competitive pressure from established network vendors and larger software/AI platform p…
Delta
No material fundamental change since yesterday. The four core valuation assumptions are unchanged: revenue CAGR 4%, E…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
4.0%
EBIT Margin Target
9.0%
12.0%
10.5%
5.0%
8.0%
WACC
8.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.3%
Terminal Growth
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
4.0%
2.7%
-1.3pp
EBIT Margin Target
9.0%
7.8%
-1.2pp
WACC
6.5%
7.0%
+0.5pp
Based on spot price 8.40 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin3.8%
EBITDA Margin12.8%
ROE3.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.7x
P/E Trailing67.0x
EV / EBITDA17.4x
P/B2.2x
Analyst Range4.65 – 18.00
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, pr
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key driver: Gradual re-acceleration in operator spending driving recovery in 5G-Advanced ...
AI consensus estimate 8.46 0.7% above the current price.
Model agreement is moderate (0.61).
Analyst consensus: 10.74 (AI -21.2%).
Bear Case (min)
5.97 €
-28.9%
Base Case (median)
8.46 €
+0.7%
Bull Case (max)
11.20 €
33.4%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)