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AI model estimates for Nokia Oyj vs spot price
2026-08-28🇫🇮 OMXHtechnology⚠ Top disagreement #2
9.12 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
3.61 €
14.99 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate NOKIA median target 9.47 € (+3.8% vs spot 9.12 €, model agreement 0.62). Analyst consensus 10.32 € (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
9.47 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+3.8%
Agreement
0.625/5 models
Raw 0.62
Dispersion
σ 20.8%
Analyst consensus
10.32 €(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
9.73 €
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on NOKIA. Key driver: Stabilization of global telecom carrier capital expenditures and recovery in ... AI consensus estimate 9.47 3.8% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.62). Analyst consensus: 10.32 (AI -8.3%).Bear Case (min)
5.98 €
-34.4%
Base Case (median)
9.47 €
+3.8%
Bull Case (max)
10.58 €
16.0%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:9.47→9.47(+0.0%)
no-changestableassumptions-held
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NOKIA moved from 9.64 € to 9.47 € (-1.7%); median WACC 6.5% → 6.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 24.1% → 20.7%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 9.64 € | 9.47 € | -1.7% |
| Median WACC | 6.50% | 6.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.0% | 4.5% | -0.50 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 10.0% | 10.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 24.1% | 20.7% | -3.36 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 10.58 → Cal. 10.51
Key Drivers
- AI infrastructure and data-center networking demand supports a revenue recove…
- Optical/IP routing and 5G upgrade cycles provide near-term growth tailwinds a…
- Nokia Technologies patent licensing and software/cloud services mix should he…
Top Risk
- Telecom operator capex remains cyclical and can delay or scale back network upgrades
- Intense competition in mobile networks and infrastructure may cap margin gains
- Geopolitical and trade restrictions could affect Nokia's regional revenue mix
Delta
No change
assumptions-unchangedrevenue-cagr-0.05ebit-margin-target-0.10
DCF 10.58 → Cal. 10.51
Key Drivers
- 1Y analyst revenue growth estimate +8.4%
- AI infrastructure and optical/IP tailwinds noted in recent coverage
- Potential margin expansion via software/services mix shift
Top Risk
- Trailing EBIT margin only 3.8%
- Historical 3Y revenue CAGR -5.8%
- Intense competition and cyclical telecom capex
Delta
No previous data
no material change
DCF 9.47 → Cal. 9.73
Key Drivers
- Stabilization of global telecom carrier capital expenditures and recovery in …
- Growth in optical networking and AI-driven data center infrastructure demand
- EBIT margin expansion driven by cost-reduction programs and product mix shift…
Top Risk
- Intense pricing pressure and competition in the mobile networks segment from major rivals
- Delayed recovery in telecom operator capital expenditures
- Geopolitical risks and supply chain vulnerabilities in key international markets
Delta
No change
unchangedstable-outlook
DCF 7.41 → Cal. 8.28
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022–2025) reflects a telecom capex downcyc…
- AI infrastructure buildout (data-center interconnect, IP routing, optical tra…
- 5G densification and private wireless enterprise networks provide a medium-te…
Top Risk
- Revenue concentration in telecom operator capex spending makes Nokia highly sensitive t…
- Huawei's continued presence in non-Western markets and aggressive pricing in emerging m…
- Execution risk on cost restructuring: Nokia has undergone multiple restructuring progra…
Delta
No change
no-changestableassumptions-held
DCF 5.98 → Cal. 7.28
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is 3.8%, so the steady-state margin target stays modest …
- Revenue history shows a decline from EUR 23.761B in 2022 to EUR 19.889B in 20…
- The business is telecom/network infrastructure and services, which typically …
Top Risk
- Carrier spending cycles can delay revenue recognition and create lumpiness in orders.
- Competitive pricing and mix shifts can limit EBIT margin expansion.
- Historical revenue contraction suggests demand durability is not yet proven.
Delta
No change
conservativenet-cashbeta-anchored
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 10.0% |
| WACC | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.5% | 2.8% | -1.7pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 8.3% | -1.7pp |
| WACC | 6.5% | 7.1% | +0.6pp |
Based on spot price 9.12 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin3.8%
EBITDA Margin12.8%
ROE3.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.7x
P/E Trailing72.7x
EV / EBITDA18.9x
P/B2.4x
Analyst Range4.65 – 18.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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