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GPT

OpenAI
· 2026-05-01
OpenAI's GPT-4.1 model. Known for systematic analysis with conservative terminal growth assumptions.
GPT is a moderate model with an average valuation gap of -1.9%. Most volatile day-to-day (3.70%/day). High validity rate (97.5%).

Model Positioning

Calibration score vs estimate consistency
Calibrated & ConsistentConsistent but UncalibratedCalibrated but VolatileLow ScoresCalibrationConsistencyGPTCLAUDEGEMINIDEEPSEEKGROK
Compare:ClaudeGeminiDeepSeekGrok

Key Metrics

-1.9%
Avg Gap
59/100
Calibration
36%
Correction Rate
36%
Positive Bias %
High Variance
Volatility
44
Days Tracked

Bias History

Model bias over time vs other models

Prediction Accuracy

Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Directional Accuracy
51.5%
Mean Absolute Error
17.8%
Prediction Bias
-2.1%
Hit Rate (±5%)
21.7%
0%25%50%75%100%3.3.11.3.19.3.27.3.6.4.14.4.22.4.30.4.
GPT51.5%
Claude49.6%
Gemini47.3%
DeepSeek48.1%
Grok49.3%
N = 964 · 1 Day

Current Estimates

Largest Positive Gap
+79.0%
+45.7%
+38.0%
+29.4%
+28.3%
Largest Negative Gap
-22.1%
-19.1%
-19.0%
-18.7%
-18.1%

Assumption Profile

6.2%
σ = 5.87
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.5%
σ = 1.26
WACC
2.00%
Terminal Growth
24.3%
EBIT Margin Target

Validity

97.5%
987 / 1012 validity rate

Cost & Performance

Avg Latency: 10.5s
Cost per Run: $0.0165
Total Cost: $16.73
~5079 + 385 tokens

Calibration Detail

59
/100
Correction Rate: 35.8%
Uncapped Deviation:
Total Valuations: 987
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