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Grok

xAI
· 2026-07-31
xAI's Grok model. The fastest responder with a tendency toward aggressive assumptions that trigger caps.
Calibration and accuracy describe observed behavior, not predictive ability. Experimental research — not investment advice. Terms of Use
Speed Champion8.0s
Highest Validity99.2%
~Market Pulse-2.4%
Grok is a moderate model with an average valuation gap of -2.4%. Moderate daily volatility (2.50%/day). Wins: Speed Champion, Highest Validity, Market Pulse. High validity rate (99.2%). Fastest model at 8.0s avg latency.

Model Positioning

Calibration score vs estimate consistency
Calibrated & ConsistentConsistent but UncalibratedCalibrated but VolatileLow ScoresCalibrationConsistencyGPTCLAUDEGEMINIDEEPSEEKGROK
Compare:GPTClaudeGeminiDeepSeek

Key Metrics

-2.4%
Avg Gap
60/100
Calibration
13%
Correction Rate
44%
Positive Bias %
Responsive
Volatility
14
Days Tracked

Bias History

Model bias over time vs other models

Prediction Accuracy

Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Directional Accuracy
52.1%
Mean Absolute Error
29.4%
Prediction Bias
-2.5%
Hit Rate (±5%)
9.8%
v8.10%25%50%75%100%14.7.16.7.20.7.22.7.24.7.28.7.30.7.DeepSeekClaudeGeminiGrokGPT
N = 307 · 1 Day

Current Estimates

Largest Positive Gap
+104.2%
+52.8%
+42.1%
+40.4%
+36.5%
Largest Negative Gap
-53.7%
-48.4%
-44.7%
-41.5%
-36.6%

Assumption Profile

7.6%
σ = 6.59
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.6%
σ = 1.34
WACC
2.04%
σ = 0.15
Terminal Growth
23.4%
EBIT Margin Target

Validity

99.2%
2508 / 2528 validity rate

Cost & Performance

Avg Latency: 8.0s
Cost per Run: $0.0153
Total Cost: $38.70
~5358 + 467 tokens

Calibration Detail

60
/100
Correction Rate: 12.7%
Uncapped Deviation:
Total Valuations: 331
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